The drafting of Bilal Nichols in the fifth round has turned into a smashing success for the Chicago Bears. Considering how far and few between these picks turn into hits, Nichols has already outperformed your average day three pick.
Still, you are talking about a 24-year old who is no longer looked at as a late pick but now looked at as a competent starter. There is more to come for Nichols, who is set to be a free agent at the end of the 2021 season.
The Bears could let Nichols play this season unsigned, but the consequence could be not only losing him but having to pay more if he does have a better season which his progression could state.
Chicago Bears should extend Bilal Nichols
Most players with one year left to reach an agreement do so in training camp before the season if the team and player have a real interest. When a player enters the year without a new deal, he is more likely to move on.
With that in mind, if the Chicago Bears extend Nichols this offseason, what would they be paying?
What could Bilal Nichols extension cost Chicago Bears?
To see what Nichols may make, we first will look at the market for his position. Some may not see Nichols next to these names, but it is a good frame point to see where Nichols stands based on recent deals. Below you can see some of the more notable extensions and signings that have happened since 2019.
This gives us an idea of the range that Nichols could see if he has a good season and hits the open market.
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With those names now known, we can look at how they compare to Bilal Nichols. For this, we are going to only compare a three-season period. The three seasons will be the three that were on their rookie deal before they were signed or extended.
This is differing in ages and date ranges, but we can see what these players were in the three years before the teams committed to them. That is the situation that Nichols is in now so we can see a fair comparison.
| Tackles | Fumbles | Def Interceptions | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rk | Player | From | To | AV | G | Solo | Ast | QBHits | TFL | Sk ▼ | FF | FR | Yds | TD | Int | Yds | TD |
| 1 | Kenny Clark | 2017 | 2019 | 26 | 44 | 99 | 73 | 22 | 23 | 16.5 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Grady Jarrett | 2016 | 2018 | 17 | 46 | 82 | 73 | 38 | 27 | 13.0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | Javon Hargrave | 2017 | 2019 | 21 | 48 | 88 | 53 | 19 | 17 | 12.5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | Bilal Nichols | 2018 | 2020 | 19 | 43 | 51 | 44 | 22 | 13 | 8.0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| 5 | Dalvin Tomlinson | 2018 | 2020 | 20 | 48 | 76 | 81 | 19 | 20 | 7.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 6 | D.J. Reader | 2017 | 2019 | 20 | 45 | 74 | 58 | 22 | 14 | 5.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Nichols may not be the leader of the pack, but he is firmly in the mix with all of these names. Some may say that Tomlinson and Reader got paid for their run defense, but Nichols slid into the nose often with Eddie Goldman out last year. He has a similar role to many of these names. While Nichols does not have as many tackles, he has a much closer tackle for loss to tackle ratio than his peers.
Tomlinson just signed this past offseason and has some of the most similar stats across the board. He signed for $10 M per year, although at a two-year price tag,
Whether the Bears go for a two, three, or four-year deal, that is the type of price range that they could expect. It would appear as though the peaks of Jarret and Clark are a bit above his range, even with a cap rising. Although an argument could be made that if Nichols played more it would be closer.
However, between $10-13M with $20-$25M guaranteed should be the range that is expected for Bilal Nichols.
That is a fair price range for him, and it should be something that he would sign. The Bears are in a tough cap spot, but with an upfront signing bonus, they can push the cap hit back. Is this something Chicago should pursue?