I still remember watching the 2020 NFL Draft live and going nuts when the Chicago Bears selected tight end Cole Kmet 43rd overall (second round) out of Notre Dame. Maybe there was a bit of a bias in place due to me being raised not only as a Chicago Bears fan but also as a Notre Dame fan.
C’mon though, the guy was a multi-sport athlete who ran a 4.70 40-yard dash at a massive 6’6″, 262 pounds. The Chicago Bears grabbed arguably the best player in the NFL Draft for a position of need and developed him in his first year.
Chicago Bears tight end, Cole Kmet is due for a breakout season this year
In Cole Kmet’s rookie season, the young TE sat behind veteran Jimmy Graham for most of the year before there was a clear shift in roles between the rookie and the veteran. Now going into his second year, Cole Kmet is lined up for what can be a true breakout for the position for fantasy football purposes. Let’s take a look at what is meant by “fantasy football breakout” and what Kmet has done and the reasons why this second year can be big for fantasy football.
All fantasy football stats in this article reflect PPR (points per-reception) scoring formats typically Weeks 1-17
What does “breakout” mean in fantasy football?
The term “breakout” is another fantasy football term thrown around every year when predicting players who will take positive strides forward. In all honesty, the term “breakout” can be subjective person-to-person so I will inform you how I view the term.
“Breakout” to me means a player takes a large jump in their fantasy football production in comparison to the previous year and it is useful for your fantasy team. For instance, if a player finished the year as the WR55 (55th best WR for fantasy) in 2019 but then finished last season (2020) as the WR45, that may indeed be a big jump in their overall production but that does not necessarily mean you would have been making much weekly use for that player.
We can talk about player improvements all day, but if you are not able to utilize the improved player in your weekly lineups, even when there are injuries or BYE weeks, then to me that is not a breakout.
Conclusion: Breakout = Big jump in fantasy production that has the potential to be useful for your fantasy teams either weekly or in rotation.
Concerns:
With any performance stance, it is important to address and acknowledge some concerns as to why a player may NOT succeed. Here are a few concerns I have heard regarding Cole Kmet for 2021:
- Jimmy Graham is still being rostered.
- Questions surrounding whether Andy Dalton or Justin Fields will be the QB.
- Potential shifts between two QB’s during a season.
- Target share if WR Darnell Mooney emerges as a breakout.
- Competition for the TE position in fantasy.
Through this article, I will hit on all of these concerns with some positives for Cole Kmet.