Chicago Bears: Cole Kmet is a potential TE fantasy football breakout

Chicago Bears (Mike Dinovo-USA TODAY Sports)
Chicago Bears (Mike Dinovo-USA TODAY Sports) /
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Chicago Bears, Cole Kmet
Chicago Bears – Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports /

Chicago Bears TE, Cole Kmet: Stats that matter in fantasy football

There are various metrics that make a great fantasy football tight end. Receptions, receiving yards, receiving touchdowns, PPG (fantasy points per game), total snaps, etc. The most important piece for me is volume, which can be seen directly from the targets a tight end is seeing. Receiving yards come into play for fantasy, and the biggest fantasy football boost is always touchdowns.

Let’s take a look at the number of tight ends who hit various categories and lay out some thoughts on Cole Kmet’s potential there:

  • 16 TEs had 70+ targets
  • 18 TEs had 500+ receiving yards
  • 15 TEs had 5+ touchdowns
  • All Top-12 fantasy TEs had at least 9.3 PPG

These are all categories that Cole Kmet can make a big jump in. Jimmy Graham (76) and Cole Kmet (44) combined for 120 targets on the year. We know Allen Robinson will get a massive target share and that Darnell Mooney has the opportunity to snag a little over 100 targets as well, but then there is a wide-open opportunity where Cole Kmet can step in as the third-most targeted player on the roster.

This goes hand-in-hand with receiving yards, in which more targets equals more receptions, which equals more receiving yards. If Cole Kmet was a top-15 player in targets, it should correlate to being the same in receiving yards as long as his efficiency catching passes is good.

The red zone is a dominant area for some tight ends. This past year, Darren Waller from the Raiders had a massive year in which he was the second-most targeted player in the red zone. Passing targets in the red zone are huge because they are the easiest opportunities for tight ends.

In 2020, Jimmy Graham was the third-most targeted TE in the red zone with 21 targets to Cole Kmet’s six targets. Even if Jimmy Graham is still utilized in this area of the field, if Cole Kmet can grab a chunk of that 21 (more or less) targets, he will have more opportunities to score touchdowns in a scheme that looked for the tight end often in these scenarios.

Add increases to targets/catches and receiving yards, then sprinkle in some TDs for the year and that should give Kmet a nice opportunity to have consistent PPG in 2021.