NFL Player Props Week 1 Over/Under: Andy Dalton
Andy Dalton will open the season as the Chicago Bears starting quarterback. As he opens the season on the road against the Los Angeles Rams, there is an anticipation that he may struggle.
WynnBet has Week NFL player props for Andy Dalton that features 206.5 passing yards, 1.5 passing touchdowns, 32.5 passing attempts, 18.5 passing completions, and 0.5 interceptions thrown.
Are these odds fair, or are there some spots for value that can be had at Wynn Bet?
NFL Player Props: Andy Dalton over/under 206.5 passing yards
Fans are going to scream under, and there are valid reasons. However, it is worth noting that Dalton averages 234.5 yards per game throughout his career. While fans may think that is skewed towards the beginning, Dalton has been up to 246 yards per game since 2018.
However, it has to be noted that in 2019 he averaged 268.8 yards per game, and in 2020 he was down to just 197.3 yards per game. Unfortunately, that number is right in line with the LA Rams, who allowed just 190.7 yards per game last season.
Of course, while Chicago did not significantly improve their offense, it is worth noting that LA is changing defensive coordinators.
However, LA has changed defensive coordinators for three straight years now. The Bears have played LA in 3 consecutive years and have only gone over 206 passing yards once.
Mitch Trubisky never threw for that many yards against the Rams, with 110 in the win and 190 in their loss. Last season Nick Foles threw for 261 yards.
Andy Dalton over/under 32.5 pass attempts
To find out whether you can bet Andy Dalton over his passing yards, you must wonder how many attempts he will get. It is worth noting Chicago threw the football 30 times in their win against LA. They threw the ball 40 and 43 times in their two losses, though.
Matt Nagy has claimed he will run the ball more, but he will have to throw if they are trailing. Beyond that, it is hard to run right at Aaron Donald, and Nagy has gone pass heavy to combat that.
It almost looks like Dalton will go over 32.5 attempts so long as he does not get benched. Considering the Rams may get a lead, and Dalton will be passing, he should hit 40 attempts, like the last two seasons.
Dalton has a career-low of 229 passing yards when he throws the football 40 times or more. If he is going to throw it 40 times, he should get over, similarly to Nick Foles.
Dalton averages 7 yards per attempt for his career, but that is down to 6.6 the past three years. The Rams allowed 6.2 yards per attempt. Even at 6 yards per attempt with 40 attempts, we see Dalton hit 240 yards.
Andy Dalton over/under 18.5 completions
So, the bet comes down to completions and interceptions. Even in not going over his yardage, Mitch Trubisky completed 24 passes when he played the Rams. If Andy Dalton throws the ball nearly 40 times, he will surely go over this as well.
The only way he will go under is if the Bears do indeed bench Dalton. These odds are skewed towards the idea that if Chicago gets down early in this game and Dalton struggles, he will get yanked.
Justin Fields and Dalton could combine to throw 40 passes, but Dalton will not hit that mark. However, based on what Matt Nagy said, the game would have to get away from Dalton for that to happen. Dalton does not have much upside but should not let the game get away from him.
Last season Dalton completed over 64% of his passes, so it would be a surprise if he came out and went 2-12 before getting benched.
Andy Dalton over/under 1.5 touchdowns and 0.5 interceptions
Dalton has shown that this number is about right with 14 touchdowns and eight interceptions in 9 starts last season. The Rams also picked off 14 balls in 16 games, which is close to the one per game.
This could be an excellent hedge of Dalton if you do indeed bet his over on completions, attempts, and yards. The only way Dalton fails to go over most of those is if he gets yanked. If he gets pulled, he throws an INT. On the flip side, he could throw for 250 yards, then throw a late INT, and you win all the bets.
The bet to avoid may be the touchdowns. Gut instinct tells you to go under, but the Bears have relied on Jimmy Graham in the red zone, and when the other option is run at Aaron Donald, they may be passing near the goal line. The issue is that Dalton could throw 40 passes because they trail all game, and they still do not sniff the end zone. There is a better chance for him to go over his INT total than over his TD total.
Over 206.5 yards
Over 32.5 attempts
Over 18.5 completions
Under 1.5 touchdowns
Over 0.5 Interceptions