NFL Player Props Week 1 Over/Under: Allen Robinson

With the great odds at Wynn Bet you can find NFL players props for the Chicago Bears Week 1 duel against the Los Angeles Rams. If you have a feeling that Allen Robinson will have a big game or struggle, you can bet over or under his projected total stat lines.

Entering NFL Week 1 Robinson has an over under recieivng yards prop of 64.5, and receptions prop of 5.5. He also is +160 to score a touchdown. What are the best ways to bet Allen Robinson’s NFL Player prop total?

NFL Player Prop: Allen Robinson over/under 64.5 receiving yards

For what it is worth, Robinson averaged 71.7, and 78.1 yards per game over the past two seasons. In 2018, he was coming off an ACL injury and had lower yards. So, to bet on him to go under would to say he would have a worse than average outcome from the past 24 months.

Still, while that is low, it has happened in two of the Chicago Bears last three games against the Rams. In 2018, he was held to five catches for 42 yards. However, as noted he was less involved overall.

Still, he had 15 yards on four catches in 2019 followed by four catches for 70 yards in 2020. Even his 70 yard performance was below his season average, and that came off of a 42 yard reception, where he would have been held to three catches for 28 yards otherwise.

NFL Player Prop: Allen Robinson over/under 5.5 receptions

The big designation noted is the receptions. He caught at least four passes in every game, but maxed out at five receptions. Those numbers are also lower than 6.1 and 6.4 receptions he has averaged over the past two years. That also just so happened to be the one out of three times he did not face Jalen Ramsey.

Ramsey does not always lineup on Robinson, but we saw that he followed him around much more often in 2020 than 2019.

Also, Ramsey has allowed one catch to Robinson in the two games in which they have squared off.  Robinson has been at his best against the Rams when he was able to get into the slot and get away from Ramsey. Robinson may line up more in the slot this year naturally, so this could lead to more fast targets. However, Ramsey has moved into the slot more often and may follow Robinson everywhere this year.

Beyond that, the short passes out of the slot may lead to more receptions, but will still make it hard for him to go over on yards.

NFL Player Prop: Allen Robinson to catch a touchdown +160

+160 implies about a 38% chance of occurrence. If you believe Robinson has more than a 38% chance of grabbing a TD then you should take this bet. The issue is that in the past three games against the Rams he has not hauled in a TD.

Beyond that, you are betting on the Bears scoring in a game where there will not be much scoring, especially with Andy Dalton leading the way. Robinson has struggled to break free in a big way from Ramsey and the key for him will be volume and not efficiency. The odds seem to be less than 38% that he does turn a pass into 6.

Final Bets 

Under 64.5 receiving yards

Under 5.5 receptions 

No Touchdown Reception