NFL Player Props Week 1 Over/Under: David Montgomery

Chicago Bears (Photo by Stephen Maturen/Getty Images)
Chicago Bears (Photo by Stephen Maturen/Getty Images) /

There is no better way to get back into the NFL season than betting some of your favorite player props. When the Los Angeles Rams take on the Chicago Bears week one, there will be plenty of action to get involved, and WynnBet has odds and props that you can place now.

If you want to bet on David Montgomery, his current props sit at 54.5 rushing yards, 14.5 rushing attempts, 23.5 receiving yards, and 3.5 catches. Should you bet the over or under when Montgomery lines up to play the Rams?

NFL Player Props David Montgomery Over/Under 54.5 rushing yards

This feels low for David Montgomery, especially after he finished the last couple of games. However, it may be just about right. For his career, David Montgomery has averaged 63.2 yards per game on the ground. While that was boosted by his 71.3 yards per game average in year two, he still did have splits where he was much better against the weak run defenses than the strong ones.

The Jaguars, Packers, and Texans were some of his best games, while the Colts, Bucs, and Rams were his worst.

Speaking of the Rams, he has played against them twice in his career with 79 yards combined. That is not 79 in one game; that is the sum of both games. So, it is clear that he has performed below average against Aaron Donald and company.

David Montgomery Over/Under 14.5 rushing attempts

One factor is that he has not seen the ball enough. You can tell where they got this line because Montgomery has 28 carries in two games against the Rams. It has been split into a 14 carry game for 48 yards and a 14 carry game for 31 yards.

This is not surprising considering the Rams defense, the Bears trailing, and Matt Nagy’s propensity to pass.

The Rams were the third-best rushing defense last season in yards and were second in efficiency. They lost some names in the secondary and are switching coordinators, but their elite rush group should remain.

Beyond that, the Bears are 7.5 point underdogs, meaning they are expected to lose. The Bears have throw 40 passes or more in their last two losses to the Rams, and I do not need to overwhelm you with stats to show you that Nagy can ditch the run in those scenarios.

Nagy has promised to get the run more involved, but we know where this will go if it struggles early against this elite group and the trail. It makes you think Montgomery may go under both stats as he has in the first two games.

David Montgomery Over/Under 3.5 catches

On the flip side, this may be where Montgomery makes his hay. Montgomery shot up last season from 1.6 receptions per game to 3.6. This tied pretty directly to Tarik Cohen, leaving a pass-catching void. In fact, in the final 11 games, Montgomery was up to 4.1 receptions per game.

It is fair to note that Damien Williams and Khalil Herbert were added, but neither is like Cohen as a pass-catcher. Cohen is not going to play again, which means there may be a discount on this prop.

David Montgomery Over/Under  23.5 receiving yards

For his career, Montgomery averages just 20.1 yards per game through the air. However, that is propped down by 11.6 in his rookie year, and he averaged 29.2 in 2020. Also, when Cohen left the lineup on, you saw that Montgomery averaged 31.3 receiving yards per game.

We know that Nagy will skew to the pass more, but the offensive line will force Andy Dalton to get the ball out quickly. Suddenly, there is a chance that you could be seeing dump-offs to Montgomery, who dashes over his receiving totals. It is worth noting that he has six catches for 40 yards in two games, which on average goes under.

Next. Week 1 Props: Andy Dalton. dark

He has one catch for 19 yards with Cohen active but did have five receptions for 21 yards without Cohen last season. That was with Nick Foles. The reality is that Montgomery went over 3.5 and was 3 yards away. Now, he should be in a better offense and in a situation where Nagy wants the ball in his hands. 4 catches for 24 yards feels obtainable.

Final Bets

David Montgomery Under 54.5 rush yards

David Montgomery Under 14.5 rushes

David Montgomery Over 3.5 Catches

David Montgomery Over 23.5 Receiving Yards