4. Baker Mayfield over 1.5 Touchdown Passes +120
It is only two games but Baker Mayfield is setting career highs. He has a career-high in completion rate, yards per attempt, yards per game, and passer rating. However, there is one glaring omission. He has just one touchdown pass. That is a TD on 2% of his throws.
His career average is 4.9% of his throws going for a touchdown. Last year he was at 5.3%. To think that he would have career marks across the board, and continue at this TD rate would be absurd. He is set to have a big TD pass game soon as the breaks have just not gone his way.
One thing that has not helped is that Kansas City and Houston are easier to run on. Beyond that, the Browns led both games for the majority, and often by two scores. They were run-heavy in both.
If there is one thing we learned about Chicago through two games it is that they are easier to pass on than throw. Cincy played it tight and lost, although their late passing was successful. Mayfield will pass more, and will get a secondary that has been exploited already to the tune of 5 passing touchdowns in two games.
The Bears give up 2.5 TD passes per game, and Baker Mayfield is all but due for a 3 TD game. It Is more likely than the +120 odds present.