Did Justin Fields meet realistic rookie season goals with Chicago Bears?

Halfway through the rookie season of Justin Fields, we looked at where he was statistically, and where he should end if he wanted to be considered to have a good rookie season. Everyone is going to say the coaching, the line, the players held them back but high picks go to bad teams and teams that fire their coaches after one year more often than you realize. With that in mind, the Chicago Bears rookie does deserve context, but we can also see how he stacks up to other rookies.

The only unfortunate thing is that Fields only started three of his final seven games, so he was not able to make drastic changes to first-half stats. Still, we will see where he sat in the first half, how he finished, and if that showed him making progress or meeting a goal.

Justin Fields Completion Percentage Goals

At the bye week, Justin Fields had a 59.36% completion rate. We noted that while the odds of him becoming a stud in the NFL multiple when a rookie hits 64% of his passes, the floor for Fields is 58.1%. Below that and you have to wonder if it is more than just the scheme holding him back.

Fortunately, while Fields did lose a tick or two on his completion rate, he was over the low threshold. Fields finished as a 58.9% passer. That is just fine considering the circumstances.

Justin Fields Touchdown Rate Goals

Justin Fields had a 2.1% touchdown rate at the bye week. This was not cutting it, and we noted that nobody really makes it in the NFL with lower than 2.6% in his rookie season. Fields was trending up, but did he have enough time to get over that bar?

He did, just barely, as he finished with a 2.6% touchdown rate. That is low, and only players like Carson Wentz and Ryan Tannehill become long-term starters with that low or lower, but if he had sat at 2.1% he was looking at the same as Mitch Trubisky in his rookie year with John Fox. Honestly, Trubisky is the best name of the bunch as well.

This does show that over time, talent will prevail over coaching, and while 2.6% is not good, it does show that he was at least able to hit the same mark as all other starters during their first year.

Justin Fields interception rate goals

Justin Fields threw a lot of interceptions to start his career. At 4.28%, there were a few outliers worse than him, but he needed to hit a 4.17% threshold to finish his rookie season.

Once again, he hit the goal set for him, and got his INT rate down to 3.7%. This puts him in a tier with Carson Palmer, Ben Roethlisberger, Josh Allen, and Cam Newton. All of them push the ball down the field and live with interceptions because they create big plays. You cannot be more reckless than these guys, though, so it is good to see that Fields finished his season in line with them after a strong finish.

Justin Fields Sack Rate goals

At 13.4%, Justin Fields was getting sacked far too often. It is still a concern after his rookie year, but this is another number that he worked on. He needed to get his sack rate down to 9.2%, and did not quite do that.

He finished at 11.8%, which is concerning, and we wrote about it. However, if you can add context to one area it may be this. There are other issues in his game as well, but this one stands out because very few quarterbacks took as many sacks as he did as a rookie and overcame it.

Justin Fields quarterback rating goals

At the bye week, Justin Fields had a 69.4 quarterback rating. He needed to keep it above 67.9 to finish his season, but would be better served to get into the 70s. He finished with a 73.2, which is right in the middle of what you would expect from a rookie quarterback.

Justin Fields yards per attempt goals

Most rookies have yards per attempt over 6.4 in their rookie season. Justin Fields was at 6.86 at the bye week and wound up getting this up to 6.93. He finished much better than he started, and would have been over seven if not for the Browns game.

Justin Fields adjusted net yards per attempt goals

Justin Fields had a 3.63 ANY/A at the bye week, which was going to be an outlier if he found NFL success. His last few games boosted his rating up to 4.24, which is pretty impressive considering how few games he played.

The Bears really wanted to see him at 4.3. Below 4.3 is a small list of successes, and plenty of failures. Over 4.3 can see plenty of cases made for success. Sitting at 4.24 is tight. You cannot quite round up to 4.3, but it is about a yard away. In the case of Justin Fields, like a game. With a healthier Justin Fields and a coaching staff committed to him, you could at least make the case that he still has potential, and will not be a bust.