Chicago Bears: Comparing Justin Fields to past rookies: INT rate

We have been looking at the statistical profile of Justin Fields to see how the Chicago Bears rookie compares to other rookie seasons at quarterback. Fields did not have the best support system, but plenty of rookies are drafted into bad spots, so it will be worth seeing how he stacks up.

There have been 88 quarterbacks to throw 200 passes during their rookie season since 1990. We will compare Fields to this group.

Justin Fields threw an interception on 3.7% of his pass attempts. Of that group, he ranks 62nd out of 88. Is that concerning? Not particularly.

When it came to touchdown rate, only 18 names were worse, and none were worth bragging about. The interception rate is a bit different. Players with a worse rate include Ben Roethlisberger, Josh Allen, Deshaun Watson, Carson Palmer, Peyton Manning, and Matt Stafford. These quarterbacks went out and made mistakes, and corrected them. Some still are gunslingers with the untimely pick here and there.

Either way, that trait is not something that derailed their career, so it should not be a concern for Fields. Still, of the 88 quarterbacks in this study, 17 went on to be long-term starters. That means that 11 of those 17 had a lower INT rate than Justin Fields. It is still better to be safe at times, and Dak Prescott, Joe Burrow, RG3, Gardner Minshew, and Justin Herbert have the five lowest rates as rookies.

Beyond that, of the 26 names that had a worse rate, six worked out, but seven became backups or spot starters, and 13 became busts. There are players who can make things happen despite interceptions, but it is still more likely that you become a long-term starter by avoiding them. Beyond that, the busts do throw more picks.

One number to note is 2.8%. if a rookie quarterback has an interception rate at 2.8% or lower, they will almost surely not be a bust. How high their ceiling will be cannot be found, but it does speak to being able to stick around in the NFL.