If there is one player the Chicago Bears will assuredly extend this offseason it will be Roquan Smith. Smith has ascended to be in the discussion of the best in the NFL. He finished 5th in All-Pro voting. Beyond that, George McCaskey went out of his way to praise the way Smith conducts himself on and off of the field in their end-of-season conference.
If the owner is pushing for it, you know it is going to happen. The question becomes just how much can Roquan Smith get?
Projecting Roquan Smith contract with Chicago Bears
The two most recent contract extensions at linebacker are Zach Cunningham and Darius Leonard. Cunningham was released from the Texans but that is because he wanted to compete, and he immediately made an impact with the Titans. Darius Leonard is the highest-paid linebacker in the NFL. How does Roquan Smith stack up against these two?
| Tack | Tack | Tack | Tack | Fumb | Fumb | Def | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rk | Player | AV | G | Solo | Ast | QBHits | TFL | Sk | FF | FR | Int |
| 1 | Zach Cunningham | 29 | 62 | 326 | 177 | 11 | 22 | 6.5 | 4 | 3 | 1 |
| 2 | Darius Leonard | 59 | 58 | 343 | 195 | 20 | 30 | 15.0 | 17 | 7 | 11 |
| 3 | Roquan Smith | 41 | 61 | 348 | 176 | 17 | 43 | 14.0 | 1 | 1 | 5 |
The approximate value shows that Leonard is the top dog, then a gap, then Roquan Smith, then another gap before Cunningham.
Most of the other stats can back that up. The big difference is turnovers. Leonard and Smith have similar numbers as tacklers and pass rushers, but Leonard destroys him in picks and forced fumbles.
It is nice to know that Matt Eberflus is bringing whatever it is that got Leonard to become a ball taker to Chicago, but that is what is going to make it hard for Smith to top Leonard.
Using Pro Football Focus we can get a look at more advanced stats that may add context to these players.
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Cunningham had more pass rush snaps than either and having far fewer sacks and hits is telling, but it is also interesting that he has more pressure than Smith. When Smith comes, he gets home and does not miss. He gets a hit or a sack.
One area where Smith can get back on Leonard is a bit is in coverage. He has much better coverage numbers across the board. He also has more stops. So, Smith is arguably as efficient as Leonard and maybe more consistent. However, the boom that Leonard brings outweighs the downfalls.
Still, these stats sum up pretty well that Smith is above Cunningham but below Leonard.
Zach Cunningham signed a four-year $58M deal. That is $14.5M in average salary, and $23.5M was guaranteed. On the other end, Leonard signed a 5-year deal worth $98M. That is an average of $19.7M and $38M is guaranteed.
If you split the difference, you get a number at 5 years, $85.5M, with $31M in guarantees. That would be $17.1M in average annual salary. That is not quite touching Leonard but does jump Cunningham significantly enough that Smith should feel good. What do you think? Is this the deal that the Chicago Bears should offer Roquan Smith?