Many fans are ready to throw out Justin Fields‘ rookie season altogether because he did not have a good situation. However, if you watch the NFL you know that most rookies do not land in good situations, so there is a level of comparability. When looking at the Chicago Bears rookie quarterback how has he compared to other recent rookies in significant stats such as turnover-worthy plays?
These are not the plays that resulted in turnovers, but rather those, plus the ones that should have. Overall, 3.7% of Justin Fields’ pass attempts resulted in a turnover-worthy play.
Since 2011, there have been 45 quarterbacks that have thrown 200 passes in their rookie season. Fields rank 15th in turnover-worthy play rate.
To give an idea of where he ranks he is tied with Tua Tagovailoa and Trevor Lawrence. Players around him include Derek Carr, Carson Wentz, Jor Burrow, and Baker Mayfield. That is not bad company to be in, especially when fans have a perception that he had such a poor season. He was in the top third in turnover-worthy plays and is with some successful names.
Some of the worst quarterbacks in turnover-worthy play rate include Brandon Weeden, Geno Smith, Matt McGloin, Christian Ponder, and Daniel Jones. There may not be a secret formula that says if you throw X% of turnover worthy plays or fewer you will be a star quarterback, but it is quite clear that if 6% of your passes are turnover worthy, or higher, then you have a long road to being a good quarterback.
The further we dig into the stats of Justin Fields, the more you realize that his rookie season was not historically poor. In fact, it was much more in line with other rookie quarterbacks than some fans would want to admit. Compared to his peers in the NFL, fans are not impressed, but when you take a historical perspective you can see that other quarterbacks had similar issues in their first season and that Fields is hitting most markers that indicate growth.