Why Chicago Bears did not overpay Larry Ogunjobi
The Chicago Bears big move of the offseason was defensive lineman Larry Ogunjobi. The team had to address the defensive line at some point, and Ogunjobi makes sense coming off of his big season in 2021.
The fit and the player are not issues, but some fans believe that he may have been overpaid with his 3-year, $40.5M deal that featured $26M in guarantees. While that looks like a lot on the surface, there are really two ways to look at it.
On one hand, this is a team that was just scrambling to shed salary, so to spend a decent chunk on one player may have been surprising. Also, in trading Khalil Mack, many fans assumed that the spending would shift to offense, and not an interior defensive lineman.
That is fair, but the question of his salary being an overpay is not. The salary of Larry Ogunjobi is essentially at $13.55M in average annual value. Two of the most recent defensive tackles to get paid in similar regard are Javon Hargrave and D.J. Reader. Hargrave is 28, and Reader is 27, so the 27-year-old Ogunjob fits right in.
Beyond that, Hargrave signed for $13M in average annual value, and Reader was at $13.25. So, how do the three compare? We also added Bilal Nichols, who was an option to bring back and play a similar role to Ogunjobi.
| Tack | Tack | Tack | Tack | Fumb | Fumb | Def | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rk | Player | From | To | AV | G | Solo | Ast | QBHits | TFL | Sk | FF | FR | Int |
| 1 | Javon Hargrave | 2018 | 2021 | 30 | 63 | 110 | 100 | 40 | 27 | 22.5 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| 2 | Bilal Nichols | 2018 | 2021 | 25 | 60 | 77 | 69 | 31 | 18 | 11.0 | 2 | 4 | 1 |
| 3 | Larry Ogunjobi | 2018 | 2021 | 29 | 62 | 120 | 77 | 50 | 37 | 20.5 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | D.J. Reader | 2018 | 2021 | 23 | 51 | 81 | 66 | 24 | 15 | 6.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
We use stats since 2018 since this is when all four were In the NFL and had a role of some sort. You can see that Ogunjobi leads the group in solo tackles, and is second in assist. He also leads the group in quarterback hits and tackles for loss. He is just behind Javon Hargrave in sacks, though.
Below you can see a more advanced stats view of how these linemen compare to each other. The numbers are from PFF.
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Once again Ogunjobi and Hargrave are at the top, and you can see the huge difference comes in pressures. Ogunjobi leads the group in run stips, and while he is behind Hargrave in pressures, those two stand away from Reader, and Nichols in this area.
When you look at the value that Hargrave and Reader saw on the open market, and realize that Ogunjobi has been statistically better than Reader, and going blow for blow with Hargrave, it is hard to make a case that he would be signing for anything less than $13M.
With that in mind, it is even harder to say that $13.5 is not a reasonable going rate considering the salary cap dropped last season and shot right back up with the thought that a world-changing virus will not hit again and affect the cap like it did in 2020.
Next. Larry Ogunjobi was upgrade for Bears. dark
If you want that say that $13M taken away from the offense is a loss that is one thing, but Larry Ogunjobi is making the market rate for a defensive lineman with similar skill sets to him, so his contract comes as no surprise.