Assessing drop-off for Chicago Bears from Larry Ogunjobi to Justin Jones
The Chicago Bears deemed Larry Ogunbjobi with a failed physical, which ended the signing before pen officially hit the paper. The Bears were disappointed with the result but were quick to pivot and grabbed Justin Jones from the Chargers.
Jones was a former third-round pick who failed to establish his way. It is obvious the Chicago Bears wanted Ogunjobi much more than Jones, but the question is just how much of a drop-off is this for the team?
Before assessing the drop in statistics, it is worth adding that Justin Jones is two years younger, and while the official contract details have not been announced, he will be coming much cheaper as well.
Below, you can see how the two compare since Jones entered the NFL in 2018.
| Tack | Tack | Tack | Tack | Fumb | Fumb | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rk | Player | From | To | AV | G | Solo | Ast | QBHits | TFL | Sk | FF | FR |
| 1 | Justin Jones | 2018 | 2021 | 17 | 51 | 63 | 55 | 13 | 12 | 4.5 | 1 | 2 |
| 2 | Larry Ogunjobi | 2018 | 2021 | 29 | 62 | 120 | 77 | 50 | 37 | 20.5 | 2 | 0 |
It is no comparison, and no one expected it to be, but the difference Is drastic.
According to PFF, Larry Ogunjobi had 41 pressures last season while Jones had just 18. In the past four years, Ogunjobi had 136 while Jones had just 64 in that same span.
Ogunjobi had 31 run stops while Jones had just 18 last season, and since 2018 Ogunjobi leads 119 to 66.
The positive to signing Justin Jones with Chicago Bears
The reality is that these are volume stats, and Ogunjobi had played twice as many snaps as Jones, so his stats should be twice as high. Jones is younger, and while not getting on the field is a problem in itself, may not have been given a proper chance in LA.
According to PFF, he had a pass rush win rate of 14.8% while Ogunjobi had a rate of 13.6%. Of course, it would be harder to sustain that rate on a higher snap count, but Jones can win as much as Ogunjobi at times.
Ogunjobi had an 8.5% run stop rate while Jones is at 7.2%. However, Justin Jones also had a missed tackle rate of 15.9% and Ogunjobi was up at 22.4%
So, Ogunjobi provides more boom, and with that was getting more playing time. However, Jones is rather consistent and presents a bit less bust. It is not an upgrade, but if they can keep the consistency that Jones has and help him grow into a bigger role then it could be a devastating blow.
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When you add in the money difference, it is worth giving Justin Jones a chance, but it has to be recognized because the drop-off is real.