Once a tweet came to the surface showcasing different wide receiver prospects and their drop rate, Christian Watson got dragged a bit. And the Chicago Bears should care about these guys, given some of them are Day 2 receivers that could help Justin Fields.
Career drop rates
— Ben Linsey (@PFF_Linsey) April 7, 2022
George Pickens: 2.1%
Skyy Moore: 3.3%
Chris Olave: 4.7%
Jahan Dotson: 5.1%
Drake London: 5.7
Alec Pierce: 6.4%
Garrett Wilson: 6.8%
Justyn Ross: 7.1%
Treylon Burks: 7.4%
Jameson Williams: 7.7%
Jalen Tolbert: 8.4%
Christian Watson: 12.7% pic.twitter.com/QH1qlhHq2L
And as I’ve preached like it’s my religion, stats tell a different story than the game. Stats are a really good resource to have, but they can’t be the only thing looked at when deciding something about sports.
For example, Christian Watson played for North Dakota State University, a team that doesn’t pass very much. So, if 100 balls were thrown to him in a season, dropping five of those would be a 5% drop rate. It’s a pretty simple structure, but it’s a statistic that helps those with higher target volume.
I’ll dive into the nitty-gritty in a minute, but this is to set the scene on why stats can be misleading.
Chicago Bears fans turned to that once they saw Justin Fields’ stats. That’s at least true for the fans that actually watched the game. Those that checked the stat sheet after each game saw bad numbers, and they turned in their fandom after another “bust”.
So, with the NFL Draft only weeks away and the Chicago Bears likely to get a wide receiver on that list above, here’s the argument on why Christian Watson’s 12.7% drop rate shouldn’t scare the Bears enough to not draft him on Day 2— if he’s still there.