3 reasons Christian Watson’s drop stats shouldn’t scare off Chicago Bears
By Dakota Wayne
Reason No. 2: How many targets per game did Christian Watson really see?
Given the offense that the NDSU Bison run, does Christian Watson even see the ball enough to make the 12.7% drop rate significant?
I say no.
In my deep dive, I was able to find how many targets Watson saw per game, and it really opened my eyes as to what the original stat was: a gotcha stat. It’s a stat that, on the surface, looks really bad. However, when digging into it more, it’s not great that he’s had as many drops as he has, but it’s not as jarring as the original stat comes off.
CONT’D
— Football Guy Dakota (@DakotaKnowsBall) April 8, 2022
2018: 15 targets/13 games (1.2t/g)
2019: 57 targets/14 games (~4t/g)
2020: 46 targets/8 games* COVID year (5.75t/g)
2021: 62 targets/13 games (4.8t/g)
NDSU isn’t an air-raid offense, so a higher drop % doesnt mean as much w/ a lower sample size
In the 2020 season, NDSU played eight regular-season games, and in those games, Watson was getting just under six targets per game.
And that was the year with his most drops (7).
Outside of the chaotic 2020 season, Christian Watson wasn’t really dropping much. Sure, he had nine drops in three seasons barring 2020, and while that’s not great, it goes into my next point perfectly.
So, what’s the final reason that the Chicago Bears shouldn’t be as worried about Christian Watson’s drops as Twitter seemingly is?