History shows the Chicago Bears should draft a receiver by the third round

The Chicago Bears would be wise to look at recent history in the NFL Draft

I went through. the last five years of NFL Drafts and looked at how many wide receivers were selected in each round. Then I looked at how many wide receivers were drafted before each of the Chicago Bears’ picks in each round. Knowing that the Chicago Bears do not have a first-round pick, let’s get the first-round history out of the way quickly.

"First-round WRs (5-year history) 2021: 5 WRs selected 2020: 6 WRs selected 2019: 2 WRs selected 2018: 2 WRs selected 2017: 3 WRs selected"

It definitely looks as though WRs are starting to be valued more seeing five were selected in the first round last year and six were selected in the first round the year prior. I would agree that the draft class in 2021 dictated that number of selections, however, the 2020 draft class may have been a little overvalued. The point is, I would not expect to see more than five WRs selected in the first round this year and it should not shock anyone if only four are picked. It isn’t the end of the world that the Bears do not have a first-round pick if they truly want a top-end WR prospect.

"Second-round WRs (5-year history) 2021: 5 WRs selected 2020: 7 WRs selected 2019: 7 WRs selected 2018: 6 WRs selected 2017: 3 WRs selected"

Now, what is important is that the Chicago Bears have not only one, but two second-round picks in the 2022 NFL Draft. The second round has seen plenty of wide receivers drafted over the last five years. In fact, history shows that this is the round where most of the WR prospects are drafted when compared to the first three rounds – 28 WRs selected in the second round over the last five years compared to only 18 in the first round and 22 in the third.

Now, not all of them pan out and not all of them exceed the hype of the true top-end WR prospects, but we have seen plenty of second and third-round WRs become top players in the NFL over the last five years. It’s possible the Chicago Bears find one in 2022. What happens if they wait until the third though? Well, that total of 22 WRs in the 3rd round is inflated by an outlier year in 2017.

"Third-round WRs (5-year history) 2021: 5 WRs selected 2020: 3 WRs selected 2019: 4 WRs selected 2018: 2 WRs selected 2017: 8 WRs selected"

As you can see, with eight wide receivers going in the third round in 2018, it really increases the total. If we look at the averages of each round, only three receivers were selected in the first round on average over the last five years. Five receivers on average were selected in the second round and four wide receivers on average were selected in the third round. To eliminate outliers, we can look to the median for comparison too. The first round still sees a median of three WRs selected. The second round has a median of six and the third round has a median of three.

We have to also look at quality though. We also have to look at where the Chicago Bears pick specifically.