The Chicago Bears finally drafted a wide receiver in Velus Jones from Tennessee. They waited until the third round to do so, but it was a possibility from the start that this would happen. Now, the question will be whether they drafted the right wide receiver or not.
Justin Fields approved of the pick, and you have to be happy that Ryan Poles is including him in the process. With that in mind, what did they like about Velus Jones?
3. Velus Jones Production Profile
Player Profiler has done a great job at identifying what the most predictive metrics are for examing how productive they can be in the NFL. Stats such as College Dominator, College YPR, College Target Share, and Breakout Age are four of the more predictive metrics.
They are predictive they show whether the team wanted to get you the ball and what you did with your chances. Below you can see the production profile for Velus Jones.
Velus Jones athletic and production profile courtesy of @rotounderworld pic.twitter.com/0LdbeTdphz
— Bear Goggles On (@BearGogglesOn) April 30, 2022
His College Dominator is in the 29th percentile. With a 22.7% dominator, he will join the list of wideouts below who did not hit 25%.
Here is every player in @rotounderworld's database at WR who earned less than a 25% dominator rating in college.
— Marcus Mosher (@Marcus_Mosher) March 4, 2020
I've highlighted a few notable "hits" as well. pic.twitter.com/9zhocE3X0u
The hits highlighted include Andrew Hawkins, Adam Humphries, Terry McLaurin, Danny Amendola, Wes Welker, Chris Hogan, Cole Beasley, Tyreek Hill, Percy Harvin, and Santana Moss. It is not impossible for him to join this list, but there is a long list of players who do not hit 25% in college and then struggle to produce in the NFL.
His yards per reception are also in the 27th percentile, which one again is not where you want to be. Even when he does get the ball, he was not producing as often as you would want. His target share is in the 60th percentile which is inspiring in that the coaches pushed to get the ball in his hands.
However, it also speaks to the low dominator and yards per reception of it not being a lack of chances. Lastly, is the breakout age which will be discussed to death. In the first percentile, there just are not many NFL players that succeed that are like him.