The Chicago Bears drafted Braxton Jones in the fifth round of the 2022 NFL draft. With that, there are no highly significant expectations. Still, we can look at recent draft picks of similar pedigree and see what exactly is a likely scenario from players like this.
Since 2011, there have been 156 offensive linemen drafted on day three of the NFL Draft. Of those, 19% wound up starting 10 games or more during their rookie season. 48% wound up starting less than ten games, but still made starts during their rookie season, and 33% did not wind up making a single start during their rookie season.
However, it is interesting to note that the majority of the list is dominated by interior offensive linemen. This makes sense considering even most tackles who fall to day three wind up having to kick inside to guard. If they were good enough to be a tackle, they probably were drafted already. This is not Braxton Jones, though, he will stick at tackle.
Still, the following 22 players were drafted and played tackle during their rookie season. Even Michael Onwenu moved to guard in year two, but he did perform at tackle during his rookie year.
Still, what is interesting to note is that the day three players who stick at tackle do end up getting on the field quite a bit.
| Rk | Player | AV | Season | Age | Team | G | GS ▼ | AV | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jordan Mills | 9 | 2013 | 23 | CHI | 16 | 16 | 9 | RT |
| 2 | Dan Moore | 7 | 2021 | 23 | PIT | 16 | 16 | 7 | T |
| 3 | Michael Onwenu | 7 | 2020 | 23 | NWE | 16 | 16 | 7 | RT |
| 4 | Bobby Massie | 5 | 2012 | 23 | ARI | 16 | 16 | 5 | RT |
| 5 | Joe Haeg | 9 | 2016 | 23 | IND | 15 | 14 | 9 | RT |
| 6 | Marshall Newhouse | 10 | 2011 | 23 | GNB | 16 | 13 | 10 | LT |
| 7 | Jordan Mailata | 4 | 2020 | 23 | PHI | 15 | 10 | 4 | LT |
| 8 | Dennis Daley | 4 | 2019 | 23 | CAR | 14 | 9 | 4 | LT |
| 9 | Justin Skule | 5 | 2019 | 23 | SFO | 15 | 8 | 5 | LT |
| 10 | Halapoulivaati Vaitai | 3 | 2016 | 23 | PHI | 7 | 6 | 3 | RT |
| 11 | Korey Cunningham | 2 | 2018 | 23 | ARI | 6 | 6 | 2 | lt |
| 12 | Hakeem Adeniji | 3 | 2020 | 23 | CIN | 15 | 5 | 3 | lt |
| 13 | Kelvin Beachum | 2 | 2012 | 23 | PIT | 7 | 5 | 2 | rt |
| 14 | Jack Driscoll | 2 | 2020 | 23 | PHI | 11 | 4 | 2 | OL |
| 15 | Jaylon Moore | 2 | 2021 | 23 | SFO | 7 | 3 | 2 | OL |
| 16 | Charles Leno Jr. | 1 | 2014 | 23 | CHI | 6 | 1 | 1 | LT |
| 17 | Tommy Doyle | 1 | 2021 | 23 | BUF | 11 | 0 | 1 | T |
| 18 | Marcus Cannon | 1 | 2011 | 23 | NWE | 7 | 0 | 1 | OL |
| 19 | Jon Runyan | 1 | 2020 | 23 | GNB | 16 | 0 | 1 | OL |
| 20 | Javon Patterson | 0 | 2020 | 23 | CLE | 1 | 0 | 0 | OL |
| 21 | Cole Van Lanen | 0 | 2021 | 23 | GNB | 1 | 0 | 0 | OL |
| 22 | Prince Tega Wanogho | 0 | 2020 | 23 | PHI | 1 | 0 | 0 | OL |
Provided by Stathead.com: View Stathead Tool Used
Generated 5/10/2022.
The number of ten game starters goes up from 19% to 32% when looking at just tackles on day three. The number of starters who get in less than ten games shifts down from 48% to 40%, but the list of players who do not get on the field also drops from 33% to 28%. The odds favor Braxton Jones getting on the field a bit more than his peers.
What would Braxton Jones have to do to compare to these two?
Last season Dan Moore allowed seven sacks and 11 hits. He also allowed 30 hurries and had a 92.9 pass block efficiency rating per PFF. When Bobby Massie was a rookie he allowed 13 sacks, 6 hits, and 42 hurries. Meanwhile, he had a 91.2 pass block efficiency rating.
To put this into perspective, Jason Peters allowed six sacks, five hits, and 17 hurries last season and had a 94.3 rating. It probably would not surprise many to hear that if the Chicago Bears start rookie Braxton Jones the expectations should be that the left tackle position could be worse than a season prior.
Still, they would be starting a player nearly 17 years younger, which raises the future ceiling. Massie is not a fan favorite, but if Braxton Jones had a similar career it would mean getting quality starting snaps out of his rookie contract, which is helpful to the Chicago Bears.
Either way, keep an eye on Jones because the odds say that he may get on th field, and that does not factor in that his only competition is Larry Borom.