All of the talks about whether Velus Jones was the right or wrong pick will be put to bed at some point soon. When it is, we will have to see whether he hit or missed his expectations. With some fans calling him Deebo Samuel, and some saying bust, there is a wide range of expectations.
What would be a more realistic view of how Velus Jones is expected to perform with the Chicago Bears?
Velus Jones realistic expectations with Chicago Bears
There have been 45 wide receivers drafted in the third round since 2011. Those wideouts average 39 targets, 23 receptions, and 319 yards, resulting in two touchdowns. That would be an average season for Velus Jones Jr. by his drafted standards.
Still, when you look at the list of 45 wide receivers, there is a difference between the top 12 and the others in receiving yards.
The top 12 in this list include Keenan Allen, Terry McLaurin, Cooper Kupp, TY Hilton, Terrance Williams, John Brown, Diontae Johnson, Tyler Lockett, Chris Godwin, Michael Gallup, and Kenny Golladay. Aside from Williams, every name on this list became a hit, showing that an early breakout in the NFL is likely going to lead to more success.
Of the 33 under these guys in rookie season success, some of the more prominent names are Marquise Goodwin, Mohamed Sanu, and Devin Duvernay. The rest of the list includes players such as Vincent Brown, Josh Huff, and Leonte Carroo.
There is a firm divide between success in their rookie season equaling long-term success, and struggles in their rookie season equaling long-term struggles.
With that in mind, the average may be dragged down a bit by a lot of the busts, and if he does hit the average it will not be quite at the top 12, which is the mark for success.
Rookie wide receivers from round three who failed to hit 20 catches, and 300 yards include Austin Pettis, Taywan Taylor, Steadman Bailey, Lynn Bowden, Devin Duvernay, Chris Conley, Miles Boykin and so many more names you do not know. This is the bar that Velus Jones has to hit to have a chance, not hit to be average.
With that in mind, the average of the top 12 wide receivers from this group is 49 receptions on 81 targets. That includes 725 yards and 5 touchdowns. That should be more in line with what is expected of Velus Jones. If he exceeds this, he is going to be in great shape, and if he does not, he will have to hit over 20 catches, 300 yards, and two touchdowns. Those are the two bars to determine what type of trajectory Velus Jones is on.