The question surrounding Robert Quinn is less about will he regress, and more about just how much. It would be stellar if he could keep at his 2021 pace in this upcoming season with the Chicago Bears but we all know how unlikely that may be.
Quinn has been in the NFL since 2011, and only twice hit 18 sacks. One was last season and the other was 2013. He did not hit 19 sacks in 2013 and go onto to continue at that pace. In fact, the reputation of Quinn in recent seasons has been that he runs hot and cold and off and on. Bears fans saw the highlight of it themselves with two sacks in 2020, then 18.5 in 2021.
Still, he has been that form of a player even if not to those extremes. In 11 years he has five seasons over 10.5 sacks, four seasons with under five sacks, and two years in-between. You are more likely to get a good extreme or a bad extreme than the in-between with Quinn.
Beyond that, the numbers show he was playing a bit over his head. According to PFF, he ranked 27th in win rate, meaning he beat his man in two seconds or less 21.9% of the time. This is a great mark considering it is out of 121 rushers, but he ranked second in pass-rush productivity.
Myles Garrett ranks first in PRP and ranks first in win rate at 37.7%. Rashan Gary had a win rate of 34.7% but pass-rush productivity was slightly below Quinn.
For his career, Quinn wins 19.9% of the time. That is a great number but is in line with the 21.9% he hit last season. So, he was winning at the same rate but was much more productive. Something will have to give, and it likely means the production for Robert Quinn.
Players that Quinn was around in win rate are Markus Golden, Leonard Floyd, Montez Sweat, Josh Sweat, and Brian Burns. These are still great rushers but do put Quinn a bit below the Myles Garrett, and Bosa brother tier.
These rushers are also all in-between seven and 11.5 sacks with Quinn being the great outlier. There is a chance that Quinn does crash back down to reality. He would average 12 sacks per year if he hit just 5.5 next season, and it would be on the brand of Quinn to have five or fewer. At the same time, the expectation should be closer to that 10-sack range.
He is not going to get back to 18.5, but 10 would be reasonable and while it would be a regression, it is not a drop-off that hurts himself or the Bears. Five sacks or fewer unfortunately is on the table and would be a bad outcome.