The Chicago Bears were able to get a glance at Khalil Herbert last season. As a sixth-round pick, the odds are low that Herbert would contribute much of anything as a rookie. With that in mind, he should at least be on a decent trajectory moving forward. Still, there will always be the draft capital that follows him around a bit.
When looking at other players drafted in the sixth round with similar statistical rookie seasons we could get a gauge for similar potential outcomes to Khalil Herbert. Who are the five most comparable rookie seasons?
5. Bryce Brown
Bryce Brown was a seventh-round pick by the Philadelphia Eagles. His rookie season with 115 carries and 13 receptions wound up being the most productive of his career. Below you can see how it compares to Khalil Herbert.
| Rushing | Receiving | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rk | Player | Year | G | Att | Yds | TD | Y/A | Lng | Rec | Yds | TD | Y/R | Lng |
| 1 | Bryce Brown | 2012 | 16 | 115 | 564 | 4 | 4.9 | 65 | 13 | 56 | 0 | 4.3 | 11 |
| 2 | Khalil Herbert | 2021 | 17 | 103 | 433 | 2 | 4.2 | 29 | 14 | 96 | 0 | 6.9 | 20 |
Similarly to Herbert most of his production came in a stretch run when he was stepping in as a starter. With Herbert it was David Montgomery who was injured, with Brown it was LeSean McCoy. In 2013, Brown went from playing under Andy Reid to Chip Kelly. In 2022 Herbert went from playing under Matt Nagy to Matt Eberflus. Brown just so happened to return kicks, too.
Brown was a backup for one season under the new coaching staff, and then they moved on as they completely redid the running back room. This could be coming in Chicago and Herbert joined David Montgomery as the only two running backs from the roster just a year ago.
While fans are excited about Herbert, Bryce Brown is a cautionary tale of what happens when a new coaching staff is not invested in a day three running back.