1. Alfred Blue
Alfred Blue is another interesting middle case between some of the bad outcomes and a best-case outcome that is a long career. Blue only last five years in the NFL but when he was in the NFL he hit 100 carries four times and 150 carries three times.
Rushing | Receiving | ||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Rk | Player | Year | G | Att | Yds | TD | Y/A | Lng | Rec | Yds | TD | Y/R | Lng |
1 | Alfred Blue | 2014 | 16 | 169 | 528 | 2 | 3.1 | 46 | 15 | 113 | 1 | 7.5 | 22 |
2 | Khalil Herbert | 2021 | 17 | 103 | 433 | 2 | 4.2 | 29 | 14 | 96 | 0 | 6.9 | 20 |
They are similar statistically, but in this case, Herbert has been the more efficient player of the two. Either way, Blue does represent a sixth-round pick that wound up getting that type of work consistently to start his career. he did not take advantage, but shows that if Herbert does, he could at least stick in the NFL for five years or longer. He should get a starting chance again.
Of the five outcomes, it gives us an understandable view of what to expect. In the case of Brown and Perkins, the rookie year did not mean much. Blue and Smallwood earned stable roles or longer term careers from their rookie season, and Murray became a starter and player who has been in committees for years.
These are the most likely outcomes for Khalil Herbert. Which one do you see him being most similar to?