4. Over or Under 3,630 yards, 7 yards per attempt
ESPN has Justin Fields throwing the football 514 times, an obvious bump from last season given the number of starts he should get. Still, from 6.9 yards per attempt last season, they have him jumping up to seven in his second season, and that totaling 3,360 yards.
With 88 rookie quarterbacks qualified in since 2000, Fields ranked 25th in yards per attempt, showing that this rate is strong for a rookie. One thing to note is that most rookie quarterbacks who post strong yards per attempt in their opening season, typically see that number stick to them the next season.
Guys such as Cam Newton had more attempts, but similar yards per attempt. That stuck with Newton through his career, showing to be a strong indicator. This is great to know because ESPN does not need Fields to improve that much in this area to meet expectations.
The question then comes down to attempts. You could argue the over here, mainly with questions of the defense, and how great the offensive line will be to hold down a running game.
Khalil Mack is traded, Robert Quinn may be too, and while the secondary looks great, the rest of the defense is short on depth. It could create games where Fields has to pass more. Beyond that, it will be tough to establish a ground game with a team that has no answers at right guard before the season starts.
This will cause the team to put the ball in Fields hands and let the new front office see what the young quarterback is made of. With that in mind, we could see more attempts. As we noted, we anticipate the completion rate being lower because takes deeper shots more than easy completions. This also could end up with averaging even more yards per attempt as he remains a big play stud.
For this stat, we will go over and project something closer to 3,800, or even right below 4,000 yards.