5 Justin Fields over/unders for Chicago Bears in 2022

Last season Justin Fields had seven touchdowns and 10 interceptions, so this would be an improvement in both areas. From a per attempt rate, he would be going from a 2.6% touchdown rate up to 3.5%. He would also be going from a 3.7% interception rate down to 2.9%.

Both would be great improvements, but are they realistic? History is on his side here.

His touchdown rate has him 70th out of 88 rookie quarterbacks. However, names with similar low touchdown rates are Carson Wentz and Ryan Tannehill. Tannehill shot up from 2.5 to 4.1% and Wentz went from 2.6 to 7.5% in his breakout season which is still getting him starting chances.

Another name that has been compared to Justin Fields is Josh Allen who had a 3.1% rate in his rookie season and saw that shoot up from 4.3%. As noted, Allen did not have a completion rate over 60%, but he was passing more, getting more yards, and creating more touchdowns. That is what could easily be expected of Fields.

It probably would not be the Wentz shooting increase, but if he sees a similar rise to Tannehill or Allen he would increase between 1.6, and 1.2%. That would put him at 4%, when ESPN has him at 3.5% he should hit 20 touchdowns.

Also, he could go below 15 interceptions. He ranked 62nd out of 88 rookies in interception rate. However, that still has him near names such as Cam Newton, Josh Allen, Ben Roethlisberger, and Deshaun Watson.

A lot of good quarterbacks throw a lot of interceptions as rookies. Newton dropped 0.8%, Allen drop 1.6%, Roethlisberger dropped 0.3%, and Watson dropped 1.8%, cutting his rate in half. On average, they dropped it by around 1.1%.

ESPN projected him to go from 3.7 to 2.9, which is about the exact same decrease that Cam Newton saw in his rate. On average, it could be a bit better.

For touchdowns, 20 or more is more realistic. Interceptions is closer overall, especially if his attempts are higher, but we could see it slightly under with 21 touchdowns and 14 interceptions in year two.

Over 18 touchdowns, under 15 INTs