5 Justin Fields over/unders for Chicago Bears in 2022

2. Over/Under 574 rushing yards

It is pretty notable that Justin Fields is top ten in rushing yards as a rookie quarterback despite only ten starts. A lot of that can be that rushing quarterbacks have become a new thing, and they are getting on the field much faster than the past.

Justin Fields hit 420 rushing yards last season, so the question is whether he can increase that by 134 yards. It seems doable but would be more impressive than you realize. If he hits 994 yards rushing in two years, it would be behind only Lamar Jackson as the most rushing yards to start a career by a quarterback.

To shoot up from 9th to second would be impressive, but also shows that most of the names ahead of him did not see a trajectory where they saw over 130 more yards the following season.

Of the top nine rushers as rookie quarterbacks, four had fewer rushing in year two than one. Cam Newton and Russell Wilson increased a bit, but would not have increased enough to go over this total.

Donovan McNabb and Kyler Murray increased around 300 yards from year one to two, and Lamar Jackson shot up 600 yards. It would be rarer than you realize.

This aids the idea of going under. Beyond the history, it can be explained by coaches wanting their quarterback to grow in the pocket as they get more experience. Luke Getsy has never been an NFL offensive coordinator, but he is not really known for running quarterbacks, either.

Fields is going to spend more time passing and more time from the pocket. He may hit 500 rushing next year, but 574 yards be may be too high.

Under 574 rushing yards