5 David Montgomery Over/Unders for Chicago Bears in 2022

3. Over/Under 45 catches

Through three seasons, Montgomery is averaging 40 catches per season. Still, we can break this down further and look into the 10 Justin Fields starts. Unfortunately, Montgomery was injured during a small part of that, and they only overlapped for six games.

In those Montgomery had just four catches in the first four games. Then, he had 11 in the final two games. That is a dramatic difference. The change came when Fields came back from his injury.

That could be a case to go over. One issue with that is that the Chicago Bears signed Darrynton Evans and Trestan Ebner. Neither will cut into much of the rushing work that Montgomery will see, but both of them are better pass-catching backs than they are power running backs.

In the case of Ebner, he is basically a flex player. The average of his six games last season would put him at 43 catches. That is with the highs, and the lows, and puts him right at 45, which may be the right number. Because he has gone under 45 catches twice, because his average with Justin Fields is at about 43, and because the Bears added two passing catching backs, the odds say go under.