5 Khalil Herbert over/unders in for Chicago Bears 2022

Mike Clay of ESPN created projections for every player on the Chicago Bears. This gives up a good chance to look into whether he is overrating, underrating, or if he is just right on his projections.

Today, we will look at Khalil Herbert, who is obviously a tough player to judge. That is Khalil Herbert, the backup running back for the Chicago Bears

5. Over/Under 90 rush attempts

Last season Khalil Herbert was at 103 rushing attempts, so this would be a small drop-off from his last season. The one obvious way to look at this is that Herbert got the majority of his rushing attempts when he was replacing David Montgomery. He had 78 of his 103 rushing attempts in that four-game run.

If Montgomery does not get hurt and miss four games, would 90 rush attempts be about right? Or even too high? The contrary is that even when Montgomery went down, Damien Williams loomed for a brief time.

That is not the case this year, as Darrynton Evans and Trestan Ebner have defined roles as pass-catching backs. Damien Williams’s role is fair, but only adds 40 carries, and 26 of them came when Montgomery was healthy.

So, when Montgomery was healthy, the duo combined for 51 carries in 13 games. That would put a backup on pace for 67 rushes with Montgomery healthy for 17 games.

If he misses one game, you could see Herbert go over. If Montgomery misses two games, it should be a lock that he would get more than 90 rushes. Beyond that, you could see a second-back mix into the Bears offense much more with Luke Getsy than Matt Nagy.

Montgomery is a free agent this offseason and the team may want to see what Herbert brings. Bet on him to go back over 100 rushes.