3 Over/Unders for Darnell Mooney with Chicago Bears

2. Over or Under 1,131 yards

Darnell Mooney went from 631 yards as a rookie to 1,055 during his second season. Now, ESPN is projecting a jump up to 1,131. It is not a huge step in production, but as noted in the last slide, Clay actually has Mooney catching fewer passes, and seeing fewer targets, so the increase in nearly 100 yards is impressive.

As a rookie, Mooney averaged 6.4, and last year he was at 7.5. To hit his over for Clay, he would have to jump to 8.5 yards per target. Even at 140 targets, he would have to get up to 8.1 yards per target.

The hope here is not only that Mooney will be more efficient despite being the obvious number one threat. There is also the hope that Mooney will have one quarterback, and that quarterback will be the best of his career.

During his rookie season, he saw Nick Foles and Mitch Trubisky split time, and had no preseason to work in. Then, in year two it went from Andy Dalton to rookie Justin Fields. Now, he gets a full season of the same quarterback. He also gets the same quarterback for back-to-back years.

Beyond that, Fields himself is expected to take a step forward as a passer. Mooney finished in the top ten in unrealized air yards during each of the past two seasons.

That means that he was getting open down the field and was not getting hit. If some of those passes start to get more accurate, or Mooney gets on the same page with Fields, this could be another easy over, as Mooney flirts with 1,200 yards.