Is ESPN overrating or underrating Velus Jones? The Chicago Bears rookie has had his recent stat projections posted by Mike Clay of ESPN, their projections expert. With that, we now have a baseline set of expectations to look into.
Will Jones do better or worse than what ESPN is expecting?
3. Will Velus Jones catch over or under 49 passes for the Chicago Bears in 2022?
ESPN has Velus Jones projected to catch 49 passes on 79 targets. Earlier in the offseason, we did a study that looked into third-round rookies, and how they perform. On average, they hit 23 catches on 39 targets, which should be a baseline for Jones to hit to avoid being a likely bust.
Still, when you exclude all busts and keep any player who stuck around in the NFL beyond their rookie contract you saw that rookies averaged 49 catches on 81 targets. This is eerily similar to Velus Jones, and his 49 catches on target projection.
Some rookies who went on to have success did worse, and some did better, but this should be exactly what is expected from Velus Jones in his rookie season. So, do you go over or under?
The easy though is to lean over. The big thing is the lack of target competition. So long as Jones does not get injured, and does not hit big bumps in the road he should be the second target. That would mean more than your average targets and catches. It will be close, but we will lean over.