3 over/unders for Velus Jones with Chicago Bears in 2022
2. Over or Under 608 yards
ESPN has Velus Jones projected for 608 yards as a rookie. In the same study, we saw that on average all rookies in round three average 319 yards. Still, when you exclude the busts, they average 725 yards.
This is surprising because the catches and targets were right on, but ESPN is projecting a much lower yard per target rate than most rookies see. ESPN has him at 7.7 yards per target, while rookies who turn out to be successful in the NFL typically have 8.9 yards per target.
This could make sense, though. One of the big things that the Bears loved about Velus Jones was their ability to move him around. They want to get the ball in his hands on screens, and quick passes. This means getting more targets than an average rookie but also possibly getting tackles for shorter gains than a typical rookie wide receiver.
Of course, Velus Jones could be the big-play wide receiver that the Bears want, and with 79 targets, he would just need to rip off a couple of catches to get over 725 yards. Still, because his average depth of target may end up much lower than expected, we could see him with 50 catches, but also just 600 yards. We will go under here.