3 over/unders for Cole Kmet with Chicago Bears in 2022

Chicago Bears - Credit: Philip G. Pavely-USA TODAY Sports
Chicago Bears - Credit: Philip G. Pavely-USA TODAY Sports /
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1. Over or Under Four Touchdowns

This one may be a bit bold for ESPN considering Kmet has two touchdown receptions in two seasons. Now, they are calling for four. This seems like a lot, but at the same time could just be a call for regression.

It is not often that a player can see so many targets and none are touchdowns. The Law of averages says if you get targeted so much, you will eventually get into the end zone.

In fact, Kmet hitting 90 targets with zero touchdowns last season is extremely rare. Only six other players had that many targets without sniffing the endzone.

Two of those players retired after that year, but the other four saw regression hit in their favor. One player only jumped to two, but the others went from zero to four, seven, and nine touchdowns.

Typically if you do not find the end zone in one year, you will find it a surprising amount more next year. In the end, it averages out to even, but in a game-by-game sense, it looks extreme.

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Considering this is not the end of the road for Kmet, you have to assume that his targets may come in different places, he may slip a tackle, or something will come up to cause him to catch five touchdowns on his 90 targets, giving him just five over 180 targets the past two years.

We will go over here as well.