AJ Dillon over 50. rushing yards
One reason why the Chicago Bears new head coach wanted to hire Luke Getsy was that he did not like playing the Kyle Shanahan outside zone scheme. Shanahan smoked him with it last season against the Colts and was on his way to doing so before Elijah Mitchell got injured.
Before he got banged up Mitchell had six rushes for 41 yards. One of the big issues with the Bears’ defensive line is that most of them are much better pass rushers than run defenders. Angelo Blackson has never taken on a big workload, Robert Quinn and Al-Quadin Muhammad have never been good run defenders, and there are questions beyond their top three starters.
For the Packers, an argument could be made that Aaron Jones will test those edge rushers the way that Mitchell did. However, Dillon saw 56% of the team rushing attempts while Jones was 28%.
Some of that is because Jones ran a route 65% of the time while Dillon did just 37% of the time. So, they are using Jones in the passing game more and giving Dillon more handoffs.
Dillon is going to get well over six yards, and if the Packers are leading, he should get a lot more than he did last week in a trailing script. This is setting up for Dillon to get work late, and a good chance for him to grind over 50 yards.