When the Chicago Bears take on the Minnesota Vikings it will end up like most games, coming down to the trenches. So, to preview the game we will look into what particular matchups will be occurring. To start, we are going to dig into the Chicago Bears’ offensive line and see if they can handle the Minnesota Vikings’ defensive line.
Chicago Bears Left Tackle Braxton Jones: 92.5 Pass Block Efficiency, 4 sacks, and 11 pressures allowed
While a pass block efficiency grade in the 90s looks good, it ranks Braxton Jones 70th out of 73 qualified tackles, per PFF. In week one, Nick Bosa was able to beat him when he had his chances, but also Samson Ebukam had a big game. He had a clean sheet against Preston Smith but allowed sacks to Jerry Hughes, and Azeez Ojulari in back-to-back games.
Minnesota Vikings defensive line rotation vs Braxton Jones
Za’Darius Smith: 41% vs LT
DJ Wonnum 38% vs LT
Danielle Hunter and Patrick Jones rotate vs LT occasionally
Za’Darius Smith has a 23.5% pass rush win rate. For comparison, Micah Parson is at 24.4%, so that is a strong number. Smith has 13 pressures and two sacks this season. What has been impressive about him is that he had dominant games against Philadelphia, and Detroit, two teams known for strong offensive lines.
He dominated the Packers as well and had a sack against the Saints. Needless to say, Smith has a huge edge over Braxton Jones.
Beyond that, DJ Wonnum has done a great job at rotating in, which has also allowed Smith to move inside vs guards and centers. Wonnum has a 14% pass rush win rate and that comes with two sacks and seven pressures. He is extremely athletic and could cause problems for Jones as well.
Chicago Bears LG Lucas Patrick has a 93.7 pass block efficiency, 1 sack, seven pressures
We are assuming that Lucas Patrick will be moving here, after rotating at right guard. The movement may be causing him to struggle because he ranks 68th out of 73 guards in pass block efficiency. His run blocking has been fine, though.
Minnesota Vikings rotation vs. Lucas Patrick
Harrison Phillips 42%
Dalvin Tomlinson 32%
James Lynch 17.3%
Jonathan Bullard, ZaDarius Smith, and Ross Blacklock rotate in
Fortunately for Patrick, Phillips only has an 11% pass rush win rate with one pressure. Phillips is okay on the ground, but Patrick should be able to ease into the role, and they may be able to run to his side.
However, Dalvin Tomlinson brings in a 22.9% pass rush win rate, and he has two sacks and 10 pressures. He moved around from left guard to right guard and center, but when he gets over Patrick, it will be a problem.
Lastly is James Lynch. Lynch gets his snaps but has not been efficient as a run defender, and has been struggling as a pass rusher.
Chicago Bears Center Sam Mustipher with a 95.5 pass block efficiency, 1 sack, and 8 pressures
A theme you can see here is that Sam Mustipher ranks 38th out of 40 centers in pass block efficiency. The Vikings front does not line someone up over center often, but he will see Phillips, Tomlinson, and even Za’Darius Smith. Smith and Tomlinson are going to be big problems for Mustipher.
Chicago Bears right guard Teven Jenkins with a 98.2 pass block efficiency, 0 sacks, and two pressures
Fans will finally get their wish with Teven Jenkins starting and playing a full game. He has been their best and ranks 21st out of 73 linemen in pass block efficiency. This is where you want to see the Chicago Bears lineman.
Minnesota Vikings rotation vs Teven Jenkins
Dalvin Tomlinson 38%
Jonathan Bullard 36%
Harrison Phillips 15%
Ross Blacklock and James Lynch rotate in
A familiar face in Jonathan Bullard is doing similar things as a pass rusher in Minnesota. He is a zero in the passing game. However, he is their best-run defender, so it makes sense that he gets in on the obvious run-downs. That is when they shift Tomlinson to the left guard and play Phillips over the center.
Still, we could see a lot of good-on-good for pass downs, and that means Teven Jenkins vs. Dalvin Tomlinson. Of course, the Vikings could also move Tomlinson to Patrick or Mustipher if it becomes an issue, then spare Bullard against Jenkins. This could lead to a clean game on the right side.
Chicago Bears Right Tackle Larry Borom with a 96 PBE, 2 sacks, and 6 pressures
Larry Borom has done just fine on the right side, but he has not had the toughest route. He saw Kayvon Thibodeaux in his NFL debut and saw Nick Bosa in a pile of slop. When he saw Rashan Gary, Gary dominated him. This sets for an interesting matchup.
Minnesota Vikings rotation vs Larry Borom
Danielle Hunter 56%
Za’Darius Smith 20%
Patrick Jones 19%
DJ Wonnnum 5%
He is going to see a ton of Danielle Hunter. Hunter has not made big noise yet, but he has also faced off with Ryan Ramcyzk, Lane Johnson, and Penei Sewell in his first three games. He only has a 13.6% win rate, but this will be his easiest matchup since week one when he had three pressures and a sack against the Packers.
Borom has done well but has not been overly tested, and Hunter has not broken out but has faced a gauntlet. It could be an explosion with both coming back to reality.