On paper, the Chicago Bears’ rushing attack is their strength. However, while it has been more functional than the passing game through the first five games, the rushing attack has been hit or miss as well.
Can Chicago Bears find explosive runs vs. Washington Commanders?
For instance, they rank third in the NFL in explosive rush rate, behind only the Giants and Browns. Considering that is Saquon Barkley and Nick Chubb, are producing big runs at a great level. However, Khalil Herbert ranks 35th and David Montgomery ranks 38th in success rate, which shows that they are not necessarily producing down in and down out.
When the Bears are not hitting the long one, they often are not running the football well. This sets up for a more interesting matchup than you might think when you first glance at the Washington Commanders and their run defense.
The Commanders rank 9th in adjusted line yards, and most of that has to do with ranking 4th in open field rushes, and fifth in second-level rushes. Second-level runs are between 5-10 yards, while the open field is beyond ten.
They are not as great at getting stops for no yards or stops behind the line, but one thing they do not do is give up big plays.
One of the big reasons for that is Kamren Curl. Per PFF, Curl is the third highest-graded safety, and third in run stops behind just Antoine Winfield, and Budda Baker. Needless to say, he is in good company. His average depth of tackle is 4.3 yards, which goes back to the idea that he does a great job keeping things below five yards, even when the line does not keep things to a yard or two.
So, essentially you have the Chicago Bears, who are not great at running down-per-down but can hit big plays against a Washington team that is not great at stopping the run at the line, but does a great job limiting the big plays.
Either Washington will give up some explosive runs, which is uncommon, or they will shut down the Chicago Bears’ rushing attack, which may not have been expected either.