Chicago Bears: Comparing Khalil Herbert to David Montgomery

So far this season Khalil Herbert has 63 rushing attempts for the Chicago Bears while David Montgomery is at 62 attempts. Montgomery leads a bit in snaps played overall, but this may as close as they get all season to an even split. The injury to Montgomery gave Herbert more work, but otherwise, the lead dog has obviously been Montgomery.

While the split will likely remain, it is worth wondering which back has been the better option for the Chicago Bears.

Is Khalil Herbert better for the Chicago Bears than David Montgomery?

The raw stats are great, but what do the advanced metrics tell us about Khalil Herbert? Thanks to Michigan Football Analytics we are able to view rushing yards over expected. This is based on the NextGenStats and can tell us how many yards a back gets on average for a specific play. Then, we can see whether the actual runner was expected to be gained.

So far this season Khalil Herbert is at 0.11 yards over expected per attempt while Montgomery is at -0.9. Herbert consistently gets more than expected, while Montgomery gets a little less than expected.

Football Outsider shows similar results. Here, they look at success rate, which tells us if the running back is getting the yards needed to keep the chains moving. A 10-yard rush on 3rd and 15 is not as valuable as a five-yard rush on third down with three yards to go. The success rate accounts for that.

Khalil Herbert has a 45% success rate compared to David Montgomery at 35%. There is no doubt that Herbert is the more efficient runner.

Speaking of efficiency, NextGenStats calculates efficiency by measuring how many steps a player takes before picking up positive yards. They have Herbert at 2.89, and Montgomery at 4.14.

What this tells us is that Montgomery dances behind the line of scrimmage much more, while Herbert is looking to run north and south. That should make it no shock that Montgomery spends 2.94 seconds behind the line per rush, while Herbert is at 2.8 seconds.

Chicago Bears running backs’ yards before and after contact

One interesting note is that Montgomery averages just 1.5 yards before contact while Herbert averages 3.3. However, Montgomery faces a stacked box of 21% compared to Herbert at 19%. It is not fair to say that the blocking is better for Herbert, or that they load the box against Montgomery.

The reality is that Herbert is not getting contacted so early because he is getting downhill so much faster than Montgomery. Because Montgomery is slower, he is taking longer to get things going. Last season Montgomery was at 1.9, so this is just his style of running.

Still, beyond that, Herbert is averaging 4.51 years after contact compared to 3.27 for Montgomery. Herbert is hitting the hole faster, but also taking on contact better.

Of course, Montgomery is breaking far more tackles, though. He has a broken tackle every 7 snaps compared to Herbert at 10. They also both have about the same missed tackles forced rate. Montgomery does it 27% of the time, while Herbert is at 28%.

The true difference is the speed of Herbert and how much quicker is able to get passed the line of scrimmage.

Chicago Bears need big plays and passing game value

Lastly, Herbert is a better big-play threat. Herbert has turned 43% of his rushing yards into breakaway yards, while Montgomery is just at 11.4%. Some of this can be coming back to the mean, and it shows that Herbert is relying a bit on the big play. Still, it is hard to say that is the only difference because he has been more efficient than Montgomery on a snap-by-snap basis as well.

One thing that Montgomery does have on Herbert is a passing game value. Montgomery averages 1.47 yards per route run, while Khalil Herbert is at 0.7. Beyond that, Montgomery has been much better in pass protection over the last two seasons.

This is a reason to keep Montgomery involved but it is obvious the Chicago Bears need to look more towards a split. Montgomery can play third and longs, and also red zone chances because he is the better passing down and goal line back.

However, Khalil Herbert is more explosive, gets passed the line quicker, and is doing work after contact. He needs to get more rushing work from the Chicago Bears moving forward.