The Chicago Bears have a better record than the Detroit Lions. They are at home, and their offense is getting national praise because of the play of their quarterback. However, they are only three-point favorites against the Detroit Lions, showing us that the team is not quite considered a better team than the Lions at this point.
The Bears have been favorites twice this season, beating the Houston Texans by just three and losing to Washington, so we know that this may not be the blowout that fans want. While the Lions do not have much going for them, they could certainly still beat Chicago. Here is why.
3. Detroit Lions can run, and the Chicago Bears cannot stop it
I do not have to fill you in with the Chicago Bears’ run defense. It may have gotten worse without Robert Quinn, which is saying something because Quinn was not a good run defender. If Detroit can craft an upset, it would be running the ball down the Bears’ throats, controlling the clock, and scoring at will by wearing the defense down.
The Detroit Lions do not do much well, but they run the football. They have a talented offensive line, and guys such as Jonah Jackson and Frank Ragnow are playing some of their best football now after injuries earlier in the year.
To put this into perspective, the Lions’ offensive line ranks second in adjusted line yards created, while the Bears’ run defense ranks 22nd in adjusted line yards. When number two takes on 22, it is a big mismatch, and it may favor the Lions.
The good news for the Bears is that they are much worse at the outside runs than the inside runs. The Lions want to have an inside-outside attack, but they have been leaning on Jamaal Williams, who cannot kill them on the edge.
The bad news it that DeAndre Swift has been banged up, but this may be the healthiest he has been in at least a month. Dalvin Cook and Saquon Barkley had success with Roquan Smith in the games.
Tony Pollard and Jeff Wilson torched them to the outside in recent weeks, so a healthy Swift can surely join the list. If he gets a full workload, and they run to the edges, it will be a long day for the defense.