The Detroit Lions came crashing back to earth in Week 16 against the Panthers, allowing 320 rushing yards on 7.4 yards per carry.
Now, they have to host one of the best rushing teams in the NFL, the Chicago Bears.
The Bears are eliminated from the playoffs, but that doesn’t mean you should assume they won’t put up a fight against their NFC North rival.
In fact, I think you should bet on Chicago to cover the spread in this spot.
Let’s take a look at the odds and then I’ll break down why I think the Bears are the bet to make this week.
Bears vs. Lions odds, spread, and total
Bears vs. Lions betting trends
- Bears are 1-5 ATS in their last six games
- The OVER is 8-1 in the Bears’ last nine games
- Bears are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games against NFC North opponents
- Lions are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games
- The OVER is 5-2 in the Lions’ last seven games
- Lions are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 home games
- Lions are 8-0 ATS in their last eight games against NFC North opponents
Bears vs. Lions prediction and pick
The Lions run defense has been terrible all season, and then they were exposed even further in Week 16, allowing 7.4 yards per carry.
Now, they face a Bears team that leads the NFL in run play percentage, running the ball on 57.56% of plays. They’re also third in yards per carry, averaging 5.2 yards per rush. There’s a strong chance they’ll have plenty of success running the football on this Lions defense.
They averaged 7.4 yards per carry against the Lions back on Nov. 13 in a 31-30 losing effort.
In that game, the Bears were set as 3-point favorites. Sure, they ended up losing the game, but what has changed between then and now that is worth a nine point swing? The Lions went from being 3-point underdogs less than two months ago, to 6-point favorites this weekend?
I’ll back the Bears to keep this game close.
You can track Iain’s bets on Betstamp here.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.