The only way Bears can swipe the No. 1 pick from Texans

The Houston Texans have been in the cellar for much of the 2022 NFL season, but the Chicago Bears can still swipe the number one pick.

Riding a nine-game losing streak heading into the final week of the 2022 NFL season, the Chicago Bears are the only team other than the Houston Texans who remain eligible to “earn” the No. 1 pick in the 2023 NFL Draft.

Sitting at 3-13 with just a home game against the Minnesota Vikings remaining, the Bears are just a half a game ahead of the Texans, who are 2-13-1. The Texans hit the road to take on the Indianapolis Colts, the team with which they tied earlier in the season.

There are nine different ways the final week of the season can play out for these two teams, as either team can potentially win, lose, or tie.

But only one of those ways would result in the Bears stealing the No. 1 pick away from the team that most recently picked first in 2014.

If the Bears lose to the Vikings to fall to 3-14 and the Texans beat the Colts to move to 3-13-1, the Bears would be on track to pick first overall for the first time since 1947.

All eight of the other potential scenarios result in the Texans landing their fourth top selection since becoming an NFL franchise in 2002.

Interestingly, two of the other eight possible outcomes result in the Bears and the Texans having effectively the same record. If the Bears tie with the Vikings and the Texans beat the Colts, both teams will be 3-13-1.

And if the Bears lose to the Vikings and the Texans tie with the Colts for a second time, they will both effectively be 3-14. The Texans would be 2-13-2, but ties count as half a win and half a loss.

The Texans would retain the No. 1 pick in both scenarios. When two teams finish with identical records, the determination of draft position is decided by strength of schedule, which is defined as the aggregate winning percentage of a team’s opponents. The team that played the schedule with the lower overall winning percentage is awarded the higher pick.

Chicago has already clinched a tougher strength of schedule than Houston, as their opponents are 140-112-3 (0.555) through 17 weeks. The Texans’ opponents are only 126-127-3 (0.498).

There is no way for the Texans to overtake the Bears in that category in the final week of the season, leaving Chicago with just one way to move up one more spot in the draft order.