Week 18 not only impacts the final seeding heading into the NFL playoffs but also establishes the draft position of every team that will not be playing in the postseason.
Chicago Bears could earn the first overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft
For the Chicago Bears, who currently hold the second overall pick in April’s draft, there are only four games of meaning this week.
Outside of the Bears’ final game of the season against the Minnesota Vikings, Chicago fans this Sunday should be keeping an eye on the Houston Texans vs the Indianapolis Colts, the Denver Broncos vs the Los Angeles Chargers, and the San Francisco 49ers vs the Arizona Cardinals.
These four games will not only change the Bears’ draft future but should shape and solidify the top four or five picks in the 2023 NFL Draft.
For the Bears, their first-round draft pick is guaranteed to be in the top 4 heading into Week 18, and with some outcomes more likely than others, let’s take a look at every hypothetical going into this crucial weekend.
First, it is important to review and fully understand the draft seeding rules and tiebreakers, which seem fairly straightforward but nonetheless should serve as a good reminder. The seeding is based on reverse win percentage, with a total strength of schedule serving as the first tie-breaker (if teams have an even record, the team with the easier strength of schedule will get the higher pick).
When talking about win percentage, it is important to remember how ties play into effect. The Texans and the Colts, who tied earlier in the season, would both be last amongst teams with the same number of wins due to their tie lowering their win percentage. This is crucial for the Bears in one very important hypothetical, as we will see.
Scenarios for the Chicago Bears’ draft position
So with that out of the way, here are the four scenarios for the Bears:
"CHI loses + HOU wins = CHI gets number 1 overall"
"CHI loss/tie + HOU loss/tie = CHI gets number 2 overall"
"CHI win + ARI or DEN loss = CHI gets number 3 overall"
"CHI win + ARI and DEN loss = CHI gets number 4 overall"
For the Vikings, 49ers, and Chargers, a win on Sunday could either help or ensure their current playoff seeding, so wins against the bottom five teams in the league should be expected, especially for the Vikings, who are facing a Nathan Peterman-led Bears team.
In reality, a lot of this comes down to the Texans vs Colts. A Texans win could almost guarantee the first-overall pick for the Bears, a potentially franchise-altering move as the team looks to rebuild.
If the Chicago Bears do end up with the first-overall pick thanks to a Colts’ loss, there is potential that the two teams could work on a trade for the draft, giving the Colts the first-overall pick for a haul of future capital in order to draft a quarterback first overall (and jump their QB-needy division rival, the Houston Texans).
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So for everybody looking for something to watch and cheer for this Sunday instead of a potentially putrid Bears performance, I only have three words: Let’s Go Texans!