Realistic draft trade starting points for the Chicago Bears first-overall pick

The Houston Texans could still be a trade partner for the Chicago Bears

The Houston Texans will play a major role in how much trade capital Ryan Poles is able to accumulate should he trade out of the top spot in the 2023 NFL Draft. And look, I’m telling you that if Poles takes Will Anderson and doesn’t move back, I’ll be very disappointed. I like Anderson as a prospect but am not sold that he fits the Bears’ scheme as a down, defensive end. He has the body type and skill set more suited for an outside linebacker in a 3-4 base defense. That said, Anderson is a generational-type talent and will be able to adapt just fine should Poles select him.

For the sake of this though, let’s imagine the Texans want to trade up to ensure they have their pick of the top-three quarterback prospects. Here is what a realistic starting point would look like for a trade from No. 2 to No. 1 overall.

We are going to use both the Rich Hill and Jimmy Johnson trade value charts for this exercise. They do not have the same results but between the two we can come to a conclusion. In the Hill trade value chart, the Chicago Bears’ first-overall pick is worth 1,000 points. The Houston Texans pick is worth 717 points. That’s a difference of 283 points. Should the Texans want to move up, it would require their second-round pick (33) worth 180 points, and their third-round pick (65) worth 78 points. It’s not 100% but would put the Texans at 975 — 25 points away.

In the Jimmy Johnson model, the values are 3,000 and 2,600 for a difference of 400 points. With this model, the Texans wouldn’t even include their second-round pick because it’s worth 580 points. That would be considered a pretty massive overpay (180 points = a mid-third-rounder). If we look at these two teams as potential trade partners, a realistic trade would look something like this:

In this scenario, the Bears get the second-overall and 65th picks in the 2023 NFL Draft, plus a future second-rounder. While valuing future picks, you typically devalue it by one round. This would give the Bears a total of 3,135 (2,600+265+270) on the Jimmy Johnson scale and a total of 875 (717+78+80) on the Rich Hill scale. The Texans would net a return of 3,092 on the Jimmy Johnson scale and 1034 on the Rich Hill scale. No scale is perfect, but this seems like a fair starting point for Ryan Poles should the Texans come calling.