Realistic draft trade starting points for the Chicago Bears first-overall pick

The Chicago Bears are hoping for a bidding war involving the Colts

It’s no secret that the Indianapolis Colts plan on offering a trade package to move up from fourth overall to the top spot in the 2023 NFL Draft. It could even end up being a trade that takes place quite early in the 2023 offseason vs on Draft Day. Rumors are that Michael Pittman or DeForest Buckner could be involved in the trade, but we won’t know for quite some time how true those rumors actually are or if the Bears are even interested in either option. For this, we will look at only draft capital and where the starting point for these two teams lands.

The hope here is that one of either the Texans or the Colts gets desperate and overpays to ensure the other team doesn’t get their pick of the top quarterback prospects. Remember, these are starting points. I got a little crazy in my Colts trade article and they were all clearly overpays. Realistically though, this would be a fair trade for the Bears and the Colts.

In this scenario, the first-overall pick remains worth 3,000 points on the Jimmy Johnson model and 1,000 points on the Rich Hill model. The Chicago Bears would net a return of 2,969 points (1,800+550+580+39) on the Johnson scale and 862 points (491+170+184+17) on the Hill scale. Even though the Bears are technically losing on both scales, this trade would be the most realistic starting point for the Bears and Colts this offseason.