Toward the end of the 2022 NFL season, we wrote about the chances of the Chicago Bears signing David Montgomery to an extension. While the chances still were not high, one thing working in the Bears favor was the rest of the market.
Running backs have a hard time getting paid as it is, but now this offseason will see one of the most vital groups at the position in free agency. If David Montgomery hits free agency as the top dog, he may get paid, but he is another name in a long group this offseason.
Saquon Barkley, Miles Sanders, Damien Harris, and Josh Jacobs are just a few of the names expected to join Montgomery in free agency this offseason. That is not going to raise his value.
Beyond that, even the teams that do not want to pay for a running back at all may be able to get their wish. The draft expert from both the Athletic and NFL Network seem to agree that this a great running back draft class.
VERY deep RB class. There is a logjam of quality RBs in the 3rd-4th range.
— Dane Brugler (@dpbrugler) February 14, 2023
This is also something that might work against Bijan Robinson in the 1st. Several RB-needy teams will be just fine waiting a round or two. https://t.co/NmAuTpmDBc
As Dane Brugler notes, the time to strike on a running back in this draft will probably be in rounds three or four. That will get you back on the same deal David Montgomery had, which is extremely affordable.
This is going to crush the running backs in free agency, though. Every team will be debating paying anything at all for a running, or just waiting until the NFL draft to see how things play out. Maybe if you miss in the draft you can still find a capable back because of how slow the market is moving.
Either way, it will create a big game of chicken when seeing who will get paid first. Nobody wants to be the first, because it will probably look like an overpay compared to the rest of the group. You also do not want to be the first to set the precedent for what the rest of the group should get.
This is going to be a fascinating situation as we get closer to free agency. There are running backs galore, but the market is over-saturated, and it is hard to see anyone getting paid with a legitimate deal because of this. Last year we projected David Montgomery at about $12M per year, this year we were closer to $9, and because of the market, that number may be high. Will Montgomery wind up being affordable for the Chicago Bears?