The Chicago Bears could find themselves right in the middle of a Super Bowl window with how successful the 2025 season went. Not many predicted the team to be this good, but 2025 is done and over with.
The 2026 NFL Season is bringing exactly zero guarantees for this franchise, and while Chicago does have a lot going for it at the moment, they also happen to be in a division with Detroit, Minnesota, and Green Bay, three winning franchises.
Let's take this a step further and dive into the three biggest obstacles to the Bears repeating as NFC North champions in 2026.
Chicago Bears will have a tough time repeating as NFC North champions in 2026...
Toughest schedule in the NFL
Based on the Bears' 2025 winning percentage, they have the toughest schedule in the NFL for 2026. Their opponents had a winning percentage of .550 in 2025. Green Bay has the second-toughest in the division at .538, Minnesota is next at .519, and Detroit's is the easiest at .467, which is actually the 6th-easiest in the entire league. While the NFL could not be more uncertain at times, and the Bears themselves did win 11 games in 2025, having the league's toughest schedule is nothing to scoff at.
Chicago is set to face eight playoff teams this season, which obviously lumps in the two divisional matchups with the Packers. The Bears won 11 games last year with the 3rd-toughest schedule in the NFL, but they didn't exactly run away with the division crown, and being able to sustain winning year over year with tough schedules isn't a guarantee.
Defense outside of turnovers
The Bears allowed the 4th-most passing touchdowns, 11th-most passing yards, and 6th-most rushing yards in 2025. Chicago also only had 35 sacks, which was tied for the 5th-fewest in the NFL.
With all of that said, the Bears also had 33 turnovers, which was the most in the league last year. Their +22 turnover differential was also the best. While forcing turnovers could not have been more of a strength, the rest of the defense - literally- was bad.
It's also unfair to simply assume that the defense can force 30+ turnovers again in 2026. Furthermore, the scoring defense ranked just 23rd last year. What must happen for the Bears to secure another NFC North title is for things to simply even out, if you will. Getting slight improvements in the passing and rushing defense would also likely improve the scoring defense.
And if that means the turnovers are closer to league average, who cares? Dennis Allen's group loved the big play, but that isn't a sustainable way to win on defense - it's like if an offense only created touchdowns by chucking the ball down the field.
While it can work here and there, its not a week-to-week sustainable thing.
The NFC North is loaded
This isn't a secret. All four teams in the division finished with winning records in 2025. Outside of Chicago, Green Bay, Minnesota, and Detroit all finished with nine wins. As recently as 2024, the Lions and Vikings had finished with 15 and 14 wins, respectively.
The chances of the Bears winning the division again with just 11 wins feel low. The 2024 Packers went 11-6 and finished third in the division. If you remove the Bears' title in 2025, every year prior since the 2017 NFL season saw the NFC North winner with at least 12 wins.
Read more: Sam Roush clearing this hurdle could be a game-changer for Bears
The odds are not in the Bears' favor of another 11-win season being enough to win the division with how competent and stable the three rival teams are.
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