The Chicago Bears (4-10) enter week 16 looking to avenge their frustrating, last-second loss to the Detroit Lions (12-2) on Thanksgiving Day. The game was pivotal for the Bears, who turned around and dismissed head coach Matt Eberflus the following morning, but the team proved that they had the talent to compete with one of the best squads in the NFL.
Even with a shakeup on the sideline, the Bears have struggled to match the intensity they displayed on Thanksgiving in either of their two losses since. Still, the Bears have been the metaphorical thorn in the Lions' paw over the past couple of seasons, and the home team has a real chance to play spoiler against the NFC-leading division rivals if they can complete the following three keys to success:
1) Attack Detroit's Defensive Front
The Lions are undoubtedly the most banged-up team in the NFL, with 22 players currently on injured reserve, 15 of whom play on the defensive side of the ball. Including week one starters in Aidan Hutchinson, Alim McNeil, Alex Anzalone, and Carlton Davis, the Lions have unfortunately faced several injuries at key defensive positions.
The Lions defense has understandably struggled with fewer and fewer key players available, but they nonetheless have struggled as of late. Over the past two weeks, the Lions allowed 72 total points, and their main problems seem to be across the defensive front, unsurprisingly where they have faced the most injuries. Against the Green Bay Packers and Buffalo Bills, the Lions allowed a cumulative 296 rushing yards while tallying just one total sack.
For the Bears, Sunday's matchup provides a unique opportunity for the offensive line to establish themselves against an injured unit that now features reserve players in starting roles. Of course, no one likes injuries, but the Bears must identify this defense's current weakness and game plan accordingly. Since their loss in Detroit, the Bears have totaled 181 rushing yards while allowing nine sacks in two games. Sunday is a good opportunity to flip the script by getting the run game going while keeping Caleb Williams upright and untouched against a defense that fights hard but is in disarray.
2) Take Away Detroit's Quick Game
Alongside the Lions' run of defensive injuries, the team recently lost a key offensive player to injury in former Bears running back David Montgomery, who still hopes to rejoin his squad by post-season play. Even without Montgomery, the Lions can lean on the capable legs of Jahmyr Gibbs, but the offense, in general, will have to work together to pick up some of the slack in Montgomery's absence.
Quarterback Jared Goff has turned in a terrific season thus far, specifically when it comes to relying on his playmakers and getting them into space. Despite being on pace to finish with 4,500+ passing yards for the second consecutive season, Goff is currently in line to finish just shy of 2,000 completed air yards, a metric that would mark his lowest in a full season. Accordingly, Goff has already matched his yards-after-catch total from a season ago of 2,147 and is on pace to smash his previous high from his rookie year.
It's no wonder that Goff is enjoying career-high success behind a great offensive line while throwing to elite pass-catching targets. With a career-low average time in pocket of 2.3 seconds, Goff and the Lions offense has feasted on quick throws that get players into open space immediately. With tough runners like Amon-Ra St. Brown, Sam LaPorta, Jameson Williams, and even Gibbs to dish the ball to, Goff succeeds as a point guard-style quarterback. To disrupt their flow, the Bears must focus on playing tight coverage at the line of scrimmage while still giving respect to a tough rushing attack. That is a task much easier said than done, but the Bears' only hope at victory is to keep the Goff and the Lions offense off their usual rhythm.
3) Be More Aggressive and Execute on 3rd Down
The Bears have struggled to play complimentary football as of late, and a lot of it starts on third down. Alongside the New England Patriots, New York Giants, and Indianapolis Colts, the Chicago Bears are one of just four teams in the NFL who rank in the bottom quarter of the league in offensive third-down rate and defensive third-down rate over the past three weeks.
Offensively, the Bears have struggled on third down all season, and currently sit as one of just two units that converts at less than 33%. Much of the blame can be traced back to the Bears' inconsistency across the offensive line, which has resulted in Williams taking a league-high 24 sacks on third down. Defensively, the Bears have not been much better, surrendering an abysmal 50% of their third down attempts since firing Eberflus, a figure that would rank last in the league extrapolated across a full season.
On either side of the ball, executing on third down is a crucial key to success. Extending drives on offense not only leads to more momentum and points, but it provides the defense time to rest while keeping the opposing offense on the sideline. Conversely, if the defense can get their opponent off the field quickly, it will provide the offense more time to operate. If these units can help each other out by doing their job on third, they may be able to reel in the Lions and snap their losing streak.