The Chicago Bears (6-3) are on the road in Week 11, taking on the Minnesota Vikings (4-5) with a chance to flip the script from opening night.
After an off-season of hype and anticipation for what the Ben Johson-led Bears would look like, a blown 11-point fourth-quarter lead in Week 1 had fans worried that not much had changed at Halas Hall. Capped off by a drubbing at the hands of the Detroit Lions the following weekend, the Bears had quickly accumulated a 0-2 record with two divisional losses.
Since then, the Bears have been a completely different team, highlighted by a 6-1 record and an NFL-high four fourth-quarter comeback wins. The Bears now have the chance to avenge their season-opener loss, tack on perhaps their most difficult win thus far, and gain traction in the tight NFC North divisional race, but if they plan on getting past the Vikings, they will have to accomplish the following three keys to success:
Establish the run early
Any road divisional should be expected to come in a close game, and the Bears will have to be sure to set the tone on the ground out of the gate if they hope to be in this one down the stretch.
Over their six wins, the Bears have averaged over 162 rush yards per game, including 170+ yard team performances in each of their last three victories. Their losses, where they average 116 yards on the ground, tell a different story. Granted, in games where a team is losing by a significant margin — like the Bears were against the Lions and the Baltimore Ravens — the offense is forced to abandon the run, negatively skewing their total rushing statistics.
Still, much of the Bears' post-bye week success has stemmed from their success on the ground, even if that means Caleb Williams scrambling for significant gains, as he did twice a week ago in their most recent late-game comeback. The rushing attack will lean heavily on top backs D'Andre Swift and Kyle Monangai against a Vikings defense that allows 125 yards per game, the 11th-worst mark in the league, but mixing traditional rushes, trick play runs to DJ Moore or Luther Burden III, and creative scrambles from Williams could get the Vikings defense on their heels early.
Generate pressure up the middle
The Bears' pass rush has been inconsistent all season, but Sunday's game provides a good example of generating pressure in a slightly different way.
After recording five total sacks over their first four games, the pass-rush has been significantly better since the bye week, including recording three or more sacks in four of their last five games. In recent weeks, slot defender C.J. Gardner-Johnson has been a big part of the game plan, recording three sacks in two games as a starter. Unfortunately, the Bears only have two players, Montez Sweat (5.5) and Gervon Dexter Sr. (4), who have surpassed that total over the entire season.
Minnesota's star offensive tackle combo of Christian Darrisaw and Brian O'Neil will make it difficult for Sweat and fellow edge rushers Austin Booker and Joe Tryon-Shoyinka to generate much edge pressure. Still, there should be better opportunities in the interior of the Vikings' front.
With center Ryan Kelly set to miss Sunday's game, the Vikings are relying on two youngsters, rookie Donovan Jackson and second-year center Michael Jurgens, to hold down the middle. With Dexter, Grady Jarrett, and Andrew Billings lined up against them, the Bears would be smart to target the young interior players of an offensive line that has allowed 3.8 sacks per game, the second-worst mark across the NFL.
Execute in the red zone
Unsurprisingly, the Bears' season thus far has been largely determined by the team's ability to operate effectively in the red zone.
Defensively, the Bears have allowed eight touchdowns in 17 red zone attempts over the course of their six wins. In their three losses, that ratio worsens to 11 touchdowns in 16 such attempts. Much of this stems from their bad loss to the Lions, who scored six touchdowns inside the 20-yard line, but the point stands that the Bears will need to be careful to bend but not break against a young quarterback in J.J. McCarthy, who is coming off his most productive outing of his career with 298 all-purpose yards.
Offensively, the Bears are actually more efficient in the red zone during their losses, but the determining factor appears to be how often they can get there in the first place. The Bears average two more red zone possessions per game in their wins compared to their losses, indicating that sustaining drives into scoring position is crucial to their success.
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The Bears' offense can be a dangerous unit -- anywhere on the field -- when they marry the aforementioned rushing attack with a dynamic and efficient performance from the passing attack. Still, in what may be a close, road, divisional game, the Bears would be smart to be aggressive near the goal line and try to up their season efficiency in the red zone.