The Chicago Bears (11-4) have won the NFC North for the first time since 2018, but there is still much at stake in their Week 17 Sunday Night Football matchup against the San Francisco 49ers (11-4).
At worst, the Bears will enter the postseason as the three seed in the NFC, but a win in San Francisco this weekend could put them one step closer to earning the conference's top spot. In a game that features two teams jostling for playoff position, the Bears can add another impressive win and gain momentum as the regular season comes to an end, but if they are going to win their third straight, they must accomplish the following three things:
Lean on the run game
The Bears have found their offensive identity in a potent run game, but the visitors will have to be sure to flex their muscles on the ground early and often to beat the 49ers.
Chicago is 8-0 in games in which the offense accumulates at least 140 rushing yards, a big improvement over their 3-4 record in games where they fail to do so. Entering the game as one of the league's top three units in rush yards per game, the Bears face a 49ers defense that is ranked 10th in rush yards allowed per game.
Still, the 49ers are 0-2 in games in which they have allowed 140 rush yards or more. The Bears bring one of the league's best offensive lines, albeit potentially without one of their top players in Darnell Wright, against a San Francisco defensive front that is missing Nick Bosa and Fred Warner. With several pass-catchers listed as questionable due to illness, the Bears should look to exploit the potential mismatch up front early.
Get to the quarterback
Defensively, the Bears' primary weakness is up front, specifically their ability to generate quarterback pressure.
Unfortunately for the visitors, the 49ers are one of the best offenses at avoiding sacks, allowing just 1.5 per game. In games in which San Francisco does worse than that mark (allowing two sacks or more), the 49ers are 3-2, including a loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, where backup quarterback Mac Jones was sacked six times.
On the other sideline, the Bears are 8-2 in games in which the defense finishes with multiple sacks. Generating consistent pressure, especially on key passing third down plays, will give the Bears a big leg up in quieting a 49ers offense that averages 26.1 points per game, the ninth-highest mark in the league. If they can keep Brock Purdy off rhythm, it could be a long day for San Francisco's offense at home.
Win the turnover battle
On both sides of the ball, the Bears have done a terrific job in the turnover game, but will likely have to turn in another strong performance to take down the 49ers.
The Bears' 31 takeaways and 10 giveaways are the most and fewest in the NFL, respectively, and the team is currently 10-0 in games in which they win the turnover battle. The 49ers, on the other hand, sit in the bottom half of the league with a -4 turnover differential on the season, and are one of ten teams to commit 20 or more giveaways so far on the year.
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In short, the Bears have made football their priority on both offense and defense. As long as Caleb Williams and company can continue to protect their possessions, the defense creating a few extra could be the ultimate decider in Week 17.