As the Chicago Bears head into the playoffs, it is easy for critics and fans alike to pick apart their weaknesses. This is what comes naturally. Rarely are fans overly confident going into the postseason. It's natural to err on the pessimistic side.
But, when it comes to Caleb Williams, folks are even quicker to jump to conclusions about one single stat in particular: completion percentage. It's been a talking point all season long.
And, ESPN's Dan Graziano has had enough of it. In his latest column, Graziano dispels the notion that Williams' inaccuracy actually hurts this Bears offense:
"Williams led the NFL with 40 throwaways, which obviously affect completion percentages but aren't necessarily a bad thing. Five of the top seven completion percentage games of his season actually came in Bears losses, while they won nine of his 10 worst."
"He had the league's second-lowest pressure-to-sack ratio (behind Brock Purdy), his pressure-to-interception ratio was third best, and he threw nine touchdowns when pressured (behind only Justin Herbert's 10) to just one interception. Sure, his completion percentage when pressured was 36.4 and surely drags down the overall number. But that doesn't tell the whole story."
Graziano went on to explain what many Williams truthers have been trying to bring to light this year: that Williams has simply avoided taking negative plays. He's done this at an extremely high level, and the difference from his rookie campaign is stark.
Caleb Williams has played a higher level of football than many naysayers think
As a rookie, Williams was coached by Matt Eberflus and company not to turn the ball over. The problem with that is the door being left open for negative plays, taking sacks, namely.
This year, Williams has been coached simply not to take negative plays. He's done a phenomenal job with this area, too, as the numbers above show. His sacks are way down. His interceptions are obviously low. The Bears are seventh in the NFL in third-down conversion percentage at 42.73 percent.
This all goes to show that Williams is, in fact, playing highly-efficient football.
Completion percentage is only part of the story, but as Graziano alluded to, it isn't the whole story.
Maybe the most surprising part of Graziano's blurb came when we found out five of Williams' top seven games, in terms of completion percentage, came in Bears losses.
Are we starting to notice that maybe one stat, in particular, is a tad bit overrated in today's NFL?
Because of the magnitude of it all, Williams' misses are blown up at times. And, this is understandable. There are some blatant misses we've seen over the course of the season.
But, to be fair, Williams also led the league in yards missed out on due to dropped passes. This goes both ways, but many of us are quick to point the finger at Williams' wide-open misses.
That doesn't excuse those throws, but this is meant to highlight that Williams has still done a fantastic job of taking care of the football. The Bears are winning games. He's taking fewer sacks. And, he's making magic happen when it matters most.
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Maybe, just maybe, we are overreacting to some select plays and missing the bigger picture.