There's often a thin line between success and failure in a football game, or any athletic contest. Give Chicago Bears quarterback Caleb Williams a healthy portion of the potential completions that were dropped by his pass catchers last season, and there's no conversation about his lackluster completion percentage.
Or, the ongoing fact the franchise has yet to have a 4,000-yard passer in a season.
Williams has to find a way to improve his accuracy this season, starting with a willingness to take the shorter completions that are often there. Then his late-game heroics can be the salt of the Bears' wins, not the necessary food time and time again.
Former New England Patriots and current University of North Carolina head coach Bill Belichick made the term "middle eight" popular, in reference to the last four minutes of the first half and the first four minutes of the second half.
Those minutes can be the pivot point in a game, and winning those minutes can be the difference between a win and a loss.
According to Jonathan Jones of The Athletic, Williams was 21st in the league in EPA/dropback within the "middle eight." His 0.07 mark was not far below the league average of 0.10, but it was also well behind league leader Drake Maye (0.39).
How did the Bears do in the "middle eight" last season?
Given Williams' below-average EPA per dropback in those middle eight minutes of games last season, a deeper dive into how the Bears performed in those minutes is warranted.
Using only play-by-play data has inherent flaws, since drives can start or finish outside those eight minutes but still yield points. The play-by-play log of one game last season has the Bears scoring a touchdown with exactly four minutes to go in the first half, with the extra point technically coming inside four minutes.
However, we can still get a rough idea of how the Bears did during what can be a tipping point in games.
Including the playoffs and accounting for the aforementioned parameters, drives that started outside the last four minutes of the first half but finished inside that time and drives that started in the first four minutes of the second half but finished after, the Bears scored 90 points while their opponents scored 97 in roughly the "middle eight".
Take out the playoff games, and it's 84 points for the Bears vs. 87 points for their opponents in the "middle eight", give or take a little time on either end for a drive start or finish.
Seven of the Bears' points came via cornerback Nahshon Wright's pick-six early in the second half in Week 1, and Cairo Santos missed a 58-yard field goal late in the first half of Week 8. Two opponents also had a missed field goal of 50-plus yards within the last four minutes of a first half.
Read more: Former Bears coach offers firm opinion about Kyler Gordon situation
All in all, the "middle eight" was basically a wash for the Bears on their way to 11 wins and a division title last year. If Williams can improve within that margin, in concert with the other more obvious margins that are persistent talking points, Ben Johnson's goal for the offense this season might not be so outlandish--among other things.
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