As the modern NFL has redefined some statistical benchmarks, one hangs over the Chicago Bears like a lead weight. While it should have happened for Caleb Williams last season, even if some dropped passes had been converted, they are the only franchise to never have a 4,000-yard passer in a season.
It felt like a foregone conclusion that Williams, as long as he stayed healthy, would top 4,000 yards through the air this season. Then he suffered a significant hamstring injury late in a Week 2 loss to the Minnesota Vikings, and that was cast into immediate doubt.
Williams returned to action in Week 6 against the Atlanta Falcons. All he did was put together the most efficient game of his career, completing 83 percent of his passes in a game plan centered on quick, short passes as he topped 300 yards through the air.
Things were a little different Thursday night against the New England Patriots. According to Sumer Sports, Williams had eight 20-plus yard completions in the game, as he completed two-thirds of his passes (22-for-33, with multiple drops) on his way to over 300 yards once again,
The dream of 4,000 passing yards for Caleb Williams this season is absolutely alive
Due to the lateness of his hamstring injury in Week 2, Williams has basically played four full games this season. He has at least 269 yards through the air three times, with the lone exception that bad weather game he was injured in.
In his four games so far this season, Williams is averaging 255 passing yards per game. Throw out the rain game against the Vikings, and that average becomes 294 yards in the other three games. If he maintains that average over the last 10 games of the season, he would actually fall just short of 4,000 yards for the season (3,960), with those missed games, of course, costing him.
Week 8 against the Seattle Seahawks will be a tough matchup for Williams and the Bears' pass offense, followed by an easier matchup in Week 9 against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
On the other side of a Week 10 bye, the Bears will face the New Orleans Saints, Detroit Lions, Jacksonville Jaguars, Miami Dolphins, and Buffalo Bills. None of those pass defenses are unbeatable, and as long as the weather cooperates in Chicago (Week 13) and Buffalo (Week 15), the Bears should have plenty of success through the air. A big game or two over that post-bye stretch would help set a higher trajectory for getting to 4,000 yards.
After Week 16 against the Green Bay Packers at home, the Bears will face the Lions and the sieve that is their pass defense again in Week 17. The regular season finale against the Minnesota Vikings looks to be a tough matchup.
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It will be a challenge, with three missed games putting him behind the eight ball in terms of being ideally "on pace." But the level Williams is playing at since his return to action keeps the 4,000-yard mark in play this season, after his injury seemed to instantly put the idea to bed for yet another year in the Bears' history.
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