As the Chicago Bears get set to take on the New York Jets in Week 4, there is one question on everyone's mind:
Who will the starting quarterback be?
Is it going to be Case Keenum or Tyson Bagent?
Keenum had the game of his life this past Monday night against the Philadelphia Eagles, operating Ben Johnson's offense with precision in sync with his head coach's play calling.
Bagent, meanwhile, is fully back from his concussion and entered the season as the team's firm No. 2 quarterback.
We could go back and forth about Keenum and Bagent, but in the end, it doesn't really matter.
To put it simply: the Jets' defense is not all that good.
The Jets' defense isn't as good as the basic numbers will tell you
But, wait. The Jets are no. 2 in the NFL in yards allowed. How can they be labeled "not that good?"
The no. 2 defense, in terms of yards allowed, is fool's gold. And here's why.
In Week 1, the Jets allowed 10 points and only 195 yards of offense to the Tennessee Titans.
There's one problem: the Titans are barely a real NFL team.
Let's move on.
In Week 2, the Jets just about beat the Green Bay Packers, but that isn't saying much with how low the Packers rank in so many key metrics so far this year -- last in rushing, 28th in offensive DVOA, and very clearly the worst offensive line in the NFL.
In Week 3, the Jets allowed 31 points from the Detroit Lions, who also rank ninth in the league in total offense and third in scoring.
That's more like it. There's the realistic expectation for a Bears offense that ranks third in the league in total yards and fifth in scoring, despite putting up only three points in a nasty, rainy Week 2 contest vs. Minnesota.
Now, let's look at the Jets defense from a few other key aspects.
This season, the Jets have forced just two turnovers in three games. For context, the Bears are third in the league with six.
Maybe the most telling stat, though, is where the Jets' defense ranks in terms of overall success rate. First, let's establish a baseline. The Vikings lead the league in this category at 33.33% per Sumer Sports.
This means that on only one-third of plays, opposing offenses gain enough yardage to stay on schedule. In simpler terms, a successful offensive play would equal 40% of the needed yards on first down, 60% on second down, and 100% on third and fourth down.
The Jets, meanwhile, rank 25th in this category, at 47.24%.
In other words, opposing offenses gain "enough" yards on nearly half of their plays against the Jets.
The Bears' offense ranks no. 8 in the league in both yards per play with 5.9 and EPA per play at 0.07.
Again, this is all while Chicago's offense was stumped by Brian Flores in the rain back in Week 2. What we saw against Carolina and Philadelphia is more what to expect on a regular basis, because nobody else in this league is as aggressive on the defensive side as Flores.
Read more: Case Keenum just cleared a path for the Bears to enter QB trade discussions
Regardless of who is under center, Johnson is going to call some easy buttons as he did on Monday night. He'll stick with a heavy dose of the run, and the Bears' offense is going to have no problem scoring against the Jets.
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